ndr
57
22
ndr has not written any posts yet.
It wasn't really intellectually honest, to the point he received enough criticism from his own wife and granted that much
You can check out the initial few minutes of the following AMA
... (read more)I don't feel like dealing with too many specifics here. One criticism I do take to heart if only because it came in one form from my wife is that despite my saying that I wanted to remain non judgmental and try to produce a document that the vaccine averse could actually receive without feeling denigrated in any way. I didn't try hard enough and certainly my guest Eric didn't try hard enough there. I would have to say we are guilty
I agree he paints a bad picture but he's short on actual, time-bounded, predictions to evaluate his claims.
He shared some predictions in May, with a time frame of months/weeks to see some vaccine resistant variant.
I think Omicron counts as variant that is vaccine resistant, even though there's no peak in vaccinated deaths rates (deaths may be, but not rates as far as I can tell).
Some other people claim Omicron does not descend from the Wuhan strain, so even this might not be the variant Geert Vanden Bossche predicted.
Were you referring to some other prediction in particular?
A source on this has been Geert Vanden Bossche (see his FAQ).
I'm not 100% convinced he's right, but I have not found any credible attempt at debunking him either. (One such attempt is from Gorski, but it's almost name calling).
He may be right, in that case you might not be able to find any convincing counterargument either.
Long term we could assess the claim that "a slow rollout of a leaky vaccine" actually applies in the context of Covid, but we know it can be theoretically (link).
Short term, for your next dose in February, I'd weight different factors:
Oops, link fixed, here it is again for convenience.
I understand you say these are large numbers, but I don't know what signal we can expect to see if they can't contain the outbreak. Number of travelers from China that need isolating?
Or do you expect that the number of deaths will be considerably high?
China keeps daily cases under 50 per million through 2022: ?% → 40%. [...] We’ll know if this is failing,
How do you know that we'll know if this is failing?
I'll go with 60% that by December 31st 2022 we'll have no credible reports (or even the OWID feed) say China had any day with 50+ cases per million, at least this puts an upper bound on the resolution.
This is the sum of three things:
Last one has low probability, certainly lower than #1, but it’s still there.
But I’m curious, what makes you think we’ll know if China will fail to contain Omicron?
Why 18?
See a reproduction of Lawrie's metastudy here.
Even without both of those constributions the result doesn't meaningfully change.
I have not managed to see Hariyanto et al reproduced yet (any help welcome), so I don't know what effect removing Elgazzar from it would have on that specific meta-study.
For Bryant et al though this is the result with both Elgazzar's in:
This is the result with both Elgazzar's out:
RR moved, but the result is fundamentally the same.
Do you think it would change the result for Hariyanto et al?
Update:
A recent preprint compares Roman et al and Bryant et al: Bayesian Meta Analysis of Ivermectin Effectiveness in Treating Covid-19 Disease
Summary:
The two studies find similar RR (risk reduction as
)
Bryant found RR = 0.38 [CI 95%: (0.19, 0.73)]
Roman found RR = 0.37 [CI 95%: (0.12, 1.13)]
Roman et al should conclude there's not enough evidence because they can't rule out RR >= 1 at 95% confidence. Instead they conclude:
In comparison to SOC or placebo, IVM did not reduce all-cause mortality, length of stay or viral clearance in RCTs in COVID-19 patients with mostly mild disease. IVM did not have effect on AEs or SAEs. IVM is not a viable option to treat COVID-19 patients.
Bryant and Roman use similar... (read more)
I was doubtful, now I stand corrected.