nebulous — LessWrong

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I was confused about Solomonoff induction a while ago. Since code from any part of whatever program is running could produce whatever string is observed, why would shorter programs be more likely to have produced the observed string? My understanding of the answer I received was that, since the Turing machine would produce its output linearly starting from the beginning of the program, a program with extra code before the piece that produced the observed string would have produced a different string. This made sense at the time, but since then I've thought of a variant of the problem involving not knowing the full length of the string, and I don't think... (read more)

Replying toHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

nebulous13y

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

I'd wondered why no one used a time-turner the moment they knew a troll was loose. Even if Dumbledore had already used up his hours, another professor could've used some form of priority magical communication to call for aurors to travel six hours into the past, swiftly prepare to deal with a Hogwarts-attacking troll, and teleport to the site. Then I realized that Quirrell could prevent all attempts to stop the troll using time travel by exploiting the restriction against information traveling back more than six hours, i.e. by waiting until six hours after he wanted the attack to start, traveling back six hours, and initiating the attack.

Replying toHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

nebulous13y

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89

I thought she mostly understood his sentence (though of course she hadn't known about ELIZA beforehand) and owned a few magical items that could talk to a limited extent.

Replying toConfused about Solomonoff induction

nebulous14y

Confused about Solomonoff induction

Augh, right. I'd forgotten that was there.

Replying toConfused about Solomonoff induction

nebulous14y

Confused about Solomonoff induction

I get it now. Thanks!

Confused about Solomonoff induction

nebulous

14y

Why wouldn't the probability of two algorithms of different lengths appearing approach the same value as longer strings of bits are searched?

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Replying toWhat useful skills can be learned in three months?

nebulous14y

What useful skills can be learned in three months?

Where are resources for finding an effective, context-appropriate exercise routine?

Replying toWhat useful skills can be learned in three months?

nebulous14y

What useful skills can be learned in three months?

Career interest: Eventually founding an IT startup, as per recommendation by Carl Shulman. Motivation: Making lots of money to donate to effective charities. Background: My dad is a freelance (Windows) computer assembly and repair guy, and I picked up some troubleshooting and upkeep tricks from that, but nothing impressive. I also took a computer science class where I gained some ability in Java.

Replying toWhat useful skills can be learned in three months?

nebulous14y

What useful skills can be learned in three months?

A basic grasp of Java. I felt like there were other skills, but they're unremarkable in the circles in which I'll spend my time--above average vocabulary, general knowledge base, and dedication to studying for my school's environment, and Less Wrong memes.

What useful skills can be learned in three months?

nebulous

14y

This September I'll start college aiming for a computer science degree, and I want to use the summer for self-improvement. I'm very uncertain about what skills I should try to learn, though, and recommendations would help.

Replying toUtilitarians probably wasting time on recreation

nebulous14y

Utilitarians probably wasting time on recreation

I simply averaged the four numbers on those countries. I'll edit the post to have a weighted average by number of nets distributed. I don't know how to account for disproportionate early deaths in my calculations, since I don't have data on the typical lifespan of, for instance, a Zambian who survives childhood.

Replying toUtilitarians probably wasting time on recreation

nebulous14y

Utilitarians probably wasting time on recreation

I refrained from rounding until the end so that if people were following my calculations starting from partway through they would arrive at the same answers. It wasn't really necessary, and now that you mention it it does raise questions about significant digits, so I'll round midway figures for display in the future.

Good point on the life expectancy being given for people currently born. I'll edit the post to use life expectancy figures from ten years ago.

Utilitarians probably wasting time on recreation

nebulous

14y

[Post edited to use life expectancy data from estimated time of birth rather than from 2012 and avoid extra significant digits.]

[Edited again to make the title more to the point and less abrasive, change the math since I found that Uganda is not one of their top four countries aided, include an accurate figure for the average age of an AMF beneficiary, link to sources on life expectancy and mosquito net distribution data, and improve some wording.]

This post argues that working a job and donating the resultant money to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) is more beneficial than recreation from a utilitarian standpoint.

AMF, GiveWell's current top rated charity, distributes mosquito nets to... (read 378 more words →)

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