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I understand the point you're raising, because it caught me for a while, but I think I also see the remaining downfall of science. Its not that science leads you to the wrong thing, but that it cannot lead you to the right one. You never know if your experiments actually brought you to the right c...(read more)

I think this is a key point - given a list of choices, people compare each one to the original statement and say "how well does this fit?" I certainly started that way before an instinct about multiple conditions kicked in. Given that, its not that people are incorrectly finding the chance that A-...(read more)

I'm significantly torn on whether to enable this. I understand the downsides of seeing authors (and am confident that I'm engaging in at least some of them), but I have one issue with it. Knowing authors can improve my ability to rapidly and effectively process posts. There's at least one author ...(read more)

Rather than being a sane view, this is a logical fallacy. I don't know of a specific name to give it, but survivorship bias and the anthropic principle are both relevant.

The fallacy is this: for anything a person tries to do, every relevant technology will be inadequate up to the one that succeed...(read more)

This suggestion is certainly an interesting one - that clicks happen in places where pre-existing ideas are weak, and "clicky" people have fewer strongly-entrenched concepts.

I think the explanation goes somewhat beyond this however, based on a personal observation that "clicks" seem to preferentia...(read more)

For me, the discovery that science is too slow was bound up with the realization that science is not safe. My private discovery of the slowness of science didn't come from looking at the process of scientific discovery and reflecting on the time it took - rather, it arose from realizing that the th...(read more)