The Forecasting Research Institute (along with coauthors Jason Abaluck and Eva Vivalt) are launching Automated AI Risk Outlook (AIRO): an ensemble of frontier LLMs reguarly forecasting the probability of catastrophic risk events. * AIRO dashboard * Launch white paper — Forecasts about the likelihood of catastrophic risks from AI vary...
TLDR: Given this exchange: > User: Janet's ducks lay 16 eggs per day. She eats three for breakfast every morning and bakes muffins for her friends every day with four. She sells the remainder at the farmers' market daily for $2 per fresh duck egg. How much in dollars does...
We demonstrated an attack against Introspection Adapters (Shenoy et al., 2026), a technique for detecting malicious fine-tunes. Long story short: an attacker who controls model weights can apply a cheap, output-preserving transform that relocates the basis the auditor was calibrated against. This defeats the auditor with no observable change in...
TL;DR: I couldn't replicate Lindsey (2026) (LW post) on Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct (0/400 trials, 0/80 false positives in the canonical sweep; null robust to layer ∈ {70, 84, 90, 100} and to a dense magnitude grid at the suspected crossover). So: how does introspection emerge in models? The optimistic reading of Lindsey's...