Nisan

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Lies, Damn Lies, and Fabricated Options

I like that you glossed the phrase "have your cake and eat it too":

It's like a toddler thinking that they can eat their slice of cake, and still have that very same slice of cake available to eat again the next morning.

I also like that you explained the snowclone "lies, damned lies, and statistics". I'm familiar with both of these cliches, but they're generally overused to the point of meaninglessness. It's clear you used them with purpose.

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

The psychotic break you describe sounds very scary and unpleasant, and I'm sorry you experienced that.

There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence

Typo: "common, share, agreed-on" should be "...shared...".

Quantum Non-Realism

"Shut up (−1/3)i and calculate." is a typo that isn't present in the original post.

Nisan's Shortform

People are fond of using the neologism "cruxy", but there's already a word for that: "crucial". Apparently this sense of "crucial" can be traced back to Francis Bacon.

Final Words

This story originally had a few more italicized words, and they make a big difference:

"Don't," Jeffreyssai said. There was real pain in it.

 

"I do not know," said Jeffreyssai, from which the overall state of the evidence was obvious enough.

Some of the formatting must have been lost when it was imported to LessWrong 2.0. You can see the original formatting at readthesequences.com and in Rationality: AI to Zombies.

Mildly against COVID risk budgets

It seems to me that if I make some reasonable-ish assumptions, then 2 micromorts is equivalent to needing to drive for an hour at a random time in my life. I expect the value of my time to change over my life, but I'm not sure in which direction. So equating 2 micromorts with driving for an hour tonight is probably not a great estimate.

How do you deal with this? Have you thought about it and concluded that the value of your time today is a good estimate of the average value over your life? Or are you assuming that the value of your time won't change by more than, say, a factor of 2 over your life?

[Link] Musk's non-missing mood

Agreed that it shouldn't be hard to do that, but I expect that people will often continue to do what they find intrinsically motivating, or what they're good at, even if it's not overall a good idea. If this article can be believed, a senior researcher said that they work on capabilities because "the prospect of discovery is too sweet".

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