no name

I was absolutely shocked when I first saw it, until I realized it had been posted on April Fools' Day

Perhaps we should also consider the impact of a Third World War on global supply chains: China is the world’s most important industrial power, while the United States is a major consumer of its products. If a war were to bring trade between the two countries to a halt, the resulting economic crisis could severely hinder the development of artificial intelligence in both nations. Furthermore, even before escalating to a nuclear exchange, war would hinder AI development: if China and the United States were to use EMP weapons against each other and destroy on... (read more)

Legally speaking, even Taipei acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China, and declaring independence would amount to publicly humiliating Beijing and seeking international recognition as an independent nation—rather than as another government within China. Such an act would undoubtedly undermine Beijing’s core legitimacy—even if military preparations are not yet fully in place, the PLA now possesses the full capability to occupy Taiwan at a high cost, and it would certainly exercise that capability.

China and the UAE are, in fact, quite similar: the UAE’s GDP comes primarily from non-oil sectors, and these industries rely heavily on the kafala system to bring in cheap labor from the Third World. Meanwhile, at least over the past few decades, China’s developed coastal regions and major cities (such as Shanghai) have developed labor-intensive industries to take on international industrial outsourcing, while its densely populated inland regions (such as Henan) have served as internal colonies and sources of cheap labor.

Under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, China has achieved miraculous growth and eradicated absolute poverty despite a similar level of repression. What exactly leads you to believe that, under such repression, China could never reach the level of development enjoyed by the United States?
Why not consider what might happen if the repression were relaxed? For example, what if the household registration system and the detention and deportation system were abolished? Rural residents lacking basic urban job skills would flood into cities in a disor... (read more)

It seems that much of the controversy surrounding this article stems from the claim that “China only attacks its neighbors,” but this claim is inaccurate. The fact is that “since 1949, the People’s Republic of China has never invaded another sovereign state with the aim of annexing it, ceding undisputed territory, or establishing a puppet regime.”

Perhaps explaining how gravity works isn’t the most effective way to respond when someone suggests installing a safety net to prevent people from falling to their deaths.

If I am not mistaken, China will secure control of the seas before launching an amphibious assault; there is no factor that would compel them to launch such an assault quickly. At the onset of war, China would use medium-range ballistic missiles (DF-15, 16, 21, 26) and hypersonic missiles (DF-17, 27, YJ-19, 20, 21) to launch a preemptive strike against U.S. military assets stretching from the Philippines to Hawaii, aiming to destroy as many air bases, naval ports, and warehouses as possible. The U.S. military’s intercept capabilities are insufficient to pr... (read more)

Looking ahead to 2026, the likelihood of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons appears increasingly remote: following the initial military chaos, Russia has effectively consolidated its front lines and is gradually advancing into the remaining parts of the Donbas region; as the situation on the ground increasingly favors them, the use of nuclear weapons has undoubtedly lost all appeal for Moscow.

If World War III descends into a stalemate, leading the warring parties to attempt creating artificial general intelligence, or even deploying misaligned artificial general intelligence in desperation...

However, these mirrors could also be used to direct sunlight toward photovoltaic or solar thermal power stations in Antarctica, deserts, or at sea. The advantages of space colonies in this regard seem difficult to offset against the disadvantages of material scarcity and high logistics costs.

Perhaps a more plausible scenario is that human colonies in space were initially established to maintain the mirrors/space power stations, and after a nuclear war broke out, these space stations took in many refugees and became independent?

In these revolutions, the disintegration of state apparatus loyalty was a key factor, with poorly organized groups primarily serving to undermine the legitimacy of the existing regime and facilitate coups within the government, as seen in the Bangladeshi Revolution or the Ukrainian Revolution.

However, history records at least two distinct revolutionary models: In the October Revolution, the Bolsheviks exploited informational advantages and a vanguard-organized military to execute a decapitation strike and seize control of the existing state apparatus. In C... (read more)

1: As I've repeatedly emphasized across multiple platforms, I did not employ generative AI technology to compose these texts. If they resemble LLM output, it likely stems from my writing style.

2: If tanks can employ directed-energy weapons and cannon-mounted programmed munitions to shoot down hundreds of drones, while striking fortified positions from thousands of meters away under infantry or drone guidance, the enemy assets they destroy and the infantry lives they protect may far outweigh their own cost.

Armor itself serves as an excellent drone deploymen... (read more)

In fact, breaching enemy drone defense zones is not impossible:

If military strength is severely imbalanced, one side can suppress enemy drone operators through airstrikes and artillery bombardment;

Armored vehicles equipped with directed-energy weapons, anti-drone weapon stations, and active defense systems can theoretically withstand swarm attacks and penetrate defenses—such as China's Type 100 tank;

Disrupting enemy drone supply chains is a sound strategy. Ukraine's ability to assemble drones using civilian 3D printers stems from its vast strategic depth a... (read more)

1&3: Even if Taiwan maintains its non-nuclear status, Beijing's intent to wage a unification war is increasingly overshadowing concerns about economic sanctions and casualties. Should Taipei attempt to acquire nuclear weapons again, it would trigger tensions far exceeding those of the North Korean nuclear crisis or the THAAD crisis, making war highly probable.

Acquiring nuclear weapons is fundamentally different from gaining the capability to deploy them. The advantage of nuclear terrorism gained through a small number of primitive fission devices would... (read more)

However, villagers who readily accept the burning of their village exhibit lower fitness and shorter survival expectations in certain scenarios compared to those who resist invasion due to past disasters.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-war-is-unlikely-to-cause-human-extinction

If the arguments in this article are correct, then nuclear war, unless it leads to the militarization of AGI, is unlikely to trigger an extinction risk.

Regardless of whether China acquires the H200, and perhaps regardless of their understanding of AI's importance, they will attempt to retake Taiwan: public sentiment, ideology, and the fact that reclaiming Taiwan would permanently establish China's semiconductor advantage over the US. China's leadership has lo... (read more)

The freedoms Deng Xiaoping granted can in fact be explained by his personal interests: selling state assets cheaply to officials helped consolidate his support within the Party, while marketization stimulated economic growth and stabilized society. Yet at the same time, he effectively stripped away most political freedoms.

Mao Zedong's late-stage governance, however, defies such explanation: even when power was unassailable, he encouraged radical leftist workers and students (the “rebels”) to confront pro-bureaucratic forces (the ‘conservatives’) and attemp... (read more)

At least in the 21st century, new internal combustion engine technologies exhibit high reproducibility and low verification costs. There are no large numbers of internal combustion engine specialists employing various means to generate false or selectively filtered test reports for personal gain. Consequently, no engine configuration used in automotive development has been found fundamentally impossible.

Automobiles are not regulated by a group of accident experts with questionable ties to automotive giants and overly strict automotive ethicists. Consequent... (read more)

If a word processor falling into the hands of terrorists could easily generate a memetic virus capable of inducing schizophrenia in hundreds of millions of people, then I believe such concerns are warranted.