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1: As I've repeatedly emphasized across multiple platforms, I did not employ generative AI technology to compose these texts. If they resemble LLM output, it likely stems from my writing style.
2: If tanks can employ directed-energy weapons and cannon-mounted programmed munitions to shoot down hundreds of drones, while striking fortified positions from thousands of meters away under infantry or drone guidance, the enemy assets they destroy and the infantry lives they protect may far outweigh their own cost.
Armor itself serves as an excellent drone deployment platform: it can maneuver upon detection, possesses surplus defensive firepower, and offers at least splinter protection. Without such platforms, drone operators must either remain in rear areas—depleting... (read more)
In fact, breaching enemy drone defense zones is not impossible:
If military strength is severely imbalanced, one side can suppress enemy drone operators through airstrikes and artillery bombardment;
Armored vehicles equipped with directed-energy weapons, anti-drone weapon stations, and active defense systems can theoretically withstand swarm attacks and penetrate defenses—such as China's Type 100 tank;
Disrupting enemy drone supply chains is a sound strategy. Ukraine's ability to assemble drones using civilian 3D printers stems from its vast strategic depth and imported components from China. These components require complex, large-scale manufacturing facilities—facilities and their logistics chains that are inherently vulnerable.
Future ground warfare will not be entirely dominated by drones: Drone-guided artillery shells, rockets, and aerial bombs will... (read more)
1&3: Even if Taiwan maintains its non-nuclear status, Beijing's intent to wage a unification war is increasingly overshadowing concerns about economic sanctions and casualties. Should Taipei attempt to acquire nuclear weapons again, it would trigger tensions far exceeding those of the North Korean nuclear crisis or the THAAD crisis, making war highly probable.
Acquiring nuclear weapons is fundamentally different from gaining the capability to deploy them. The advantage of nuclear terrorism gained through a small number of primitive fission devices would not secure victory for Taiwan, just as Iraq did not win the Gulf War through its chemical weapons advantage. If these devices are not destroyed, captured, or neutralized early in the conflict,... (read more)
However, villagers who readily accept the burning of their village exhibit lower fitness and shorter survival expectations in certain scenarios compared to those who resist invasion due to past disasters.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-war-is-unlikely-to-cause-human-extinction
If the arguments in this article are correct, then nuclear war, unless it leads to the militarization of AGI, is unlikely to trigger an extinction risk.
Regardless of whether China acquires the H200, and perhaps regardless of their understanding of AI's importance, they will attempt to retake Taiwan: public sentiment, ideology, and the fact that reclaiming Taiwan would permanently establish China's semiconductor advantage over the US. China's leadership has long recognized the critical importance of securing advanced chip supplies.
The freedoms Deng Xiaoping granted can in fact be explained by his personal interests: selling state assets cheaply to officials helped consolidate his support within the Party, while marketization stimulated economic growth and stabilized society. Yet at the same time, he effectively stripped away most political freedoms.
Mao Zedong's late-stage governance, however, defies such explanation: even when power was unassailable, he encouraged radical leftist workers and students (the “rebels”) to confront pro-bureaucratic forces (the ‘conservatives’) and attempted to establish direct democratic systems like the Shanghai Commune. Despite ordering crackdowns on communist dissidents like the “May 16th” group, this behavior likely stemmed more from political ideals.
At least in the 21st century, new internal combustion engine technologies exhibit high reproducibility and low verification costs. There are no large numbers of internal combustion engine specialists employing various means to generate false or selectively filtered test reports for personal gain. Consequently, no engine configuration used in automotive development has been found fundamentally impossible.
Automobiles are not regulated by a group of accident experts with questionable ties to automotive giants and overly strict automotive ethicists. Consequently, a vehicle cannot be banned for violating some aspect of so-called automotive ethics. New cars also do not require decades of randomized controlled trials involving thousands of participants to gain market approval—costs that smaller automotive companies... (read more)
If a word processor falling into the hands of terrorists could easily generate a memetic virus capable of inducing schizophrenia in hundreds of millions of people, then I believe such concerns are warranted.
AI-assisted communities are likely to attempt defining their values through artificial intelligence and may willingly allow AI to reinforce those values. Since they possess autonomous communities independent of one another, there is no necessity for different communities to establish unified values.
Thus another question arises: Do these localized artificial intelligences possess the authority to harm the interests of other AI entities and human communities not under their jurisdiction, provided certain conditions are met, based on their own values? If so, where are the boundaries?
Consider this hypothetical: a community whose members advocate maximizing suffering within their domain, establishing indescribably brutal assembly-line slaughter and execution systems. Yet, due to the persuasive power of this community's... (read more)
In these revolutions, the disintegration of state apparatus loyalty was a key factor, with poorly organized groups primarily serving to undermine the legitimacy of the existing regime and facilitate coups within the government, as seen in the Bangladeshi Revolution or the Ukrainian Revolution.
However, history records at least two distinct revolutionary models: In the October Revolution, the Bolsheviks exploited informational advantages and a vanguard-organized military to execute a decapitation strike and seize control of the existing state apparatus. In China's revolution, the Communist Party established its own state apparatus capable of delivering more effective governance than the original government, ultimately defeating the state machinery of warlords and the Kuomintang through warfare.
Unfortunately, in the post-AGI era, neither of these methods of launching revolutions is any more likely to succeed than expecting a coup within the government.