Really interesting to visit this post in 2025. Many of your early points about multimodal models, hype cycles, and chip competition turned out to be stunningly accurate. I think that the trajectory around diplomacy and bureaucracy architectures feels a little less central compared to how things actually unfolded, with agent frameworks, RAG pipelines, etc, taking the spotlight. I still feel that the propaganda concerns resonate; the information environment continually feels warped by AI-assisted persuasion. 

If we were to extend this trajectory today, do you envision future AI progress having to do more with scaling architecture (agents, tool use) or more as a story of governance and incentives (who is deploying + regulating these systems)? Or perhaps a combination of both?

Seeking Interview Participants – Research on LessWrong’s Community Design

Hi! My name is Noah, and I'm a graduate student at Georgia Tech studying Computer Science with a concentration in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI). For a research project, I'm examining how how the design of online communities shapes user behavior and discussion. I’m using LessWrong as a case study and would love to interview a few community members (30–60 min) about their experiences here.

If you’re open to chatting, please comment or DM me! Happy to provide university/IRB details if helpful.