The point about the use of the likelihood ratio (to enable us to evaluate the probative value of evidence without having to propose subjective prior probabilities) is something that I am increasingly having grave doubts about. This idea has been oversold by the forensic statistics community. I am currently writing a paper which will show that, in practice, the likelihood... (read 426 more words →)
I have only just come across this discussion (the original article referred to my work). The article
Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M. (2011), 'Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks'
was published in the Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, 114-151, 2011 (Journal ISSN 1440-4982) A pre-publication pdf can be found here:
https://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/fenton_neil_prob_fallacies_June2011web.pdf
The point about the use of the likelihood ratio (to enable us to evaluate the probative value of evidence without having to propose subjective prior probabilities) is something that I am increasingly having grave doubts about. This idea has been oversold by the forensic statistics community. I am currently writing a paper which will show that, in practice, the likelihood... (read 426 more words →)