EDIT: rephrased the estimations so they match the probability one would enter in the Elicit questions 

Oof, that means I get to change my predictions. 

I made three quick predictions, of which I'm not really sure. Someone should do the Bayesian calculation with a reasonable prior to determine how likely is it than more than half of experts would answer some way given the answers by the 6 experts who did answer.

For some of these questions, I'd expect experts to care more about the specific details than I would. E.g., maybe for “The entire cortical network could be modeled as the repetition of a few relatively simple neural structures, arranged in a similar pattern even across different cortical areas” someone who spends a lot of time researching the minutiae of cortical regions is more likely to consider the sentence false.

• https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-election-2016-laurie-oakes-ties-up-bookies-with-multicoloured-offering-20160703-gpxhr0.html,
• https://www.sportbible.com/americanfootball/news-betting-super-bowl-streaker-yuri-andrade-won-374000-on-incredible-prop-bet-20210209 
• Both examples courtesy of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26194848

Cheers, thanks! These are great

Thanks!

More examples in this paper: From self-prediction to self-defeat: behavioral forecasting, self-fulfilling prophecies, and the effect of competitive expectations

Two other examples:

• Youtube's recommender system changes the habits of Youtube video producers (e.g., using keywords at the beginning of the titles, and at the beginning of the video now that Youtube can parse speech)
• Andrew Yang apparently received death threats over a prediction market on the number of tweets. 

I've come back to this occasionally, thanks. Here are two more snippets:

To get one post 

{
        post(
            input: {  
            selector: {
                _id: "Here goes the id"
            }      
            }) 
        {
            result {
            _id
            title
            slug
            pageUrl
            postedAt
            baseScore
            voteCount
            commentCount
            meta
            question
            url
            user {
                username
                slug
                karma
                maxPostCount
                commentCount
            }
            }
        }
}

or, as a JavaScript/node function:

let graphQLendpoint = 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/graphql' // or https://www.lesswrong.com/graphql. Note that this is not the same as the graph*i*ql visual interface talked about in the post. 

async function fetchPost(id){ 
  // note the async
  let response  = await fetch(graphQLendpoint, ({
    method: 'POST',
    headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
    body: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
       {
        post(
            input: {  
            selector: {
                _id: "${id}"
            }      
            }) 
        {
            result {
            _id
            title
            slug
            pageUrl
            postedAt
            baseScore
            voteCount
            commentCount
            meta
            question
            url
            user {
                username
                slug
                karma
                maxPostCount
                commentCount
            }
            }
        }
}`
})),
  }))
  .then(res => res.json())
  .then(res => res.data.post? res.data.post.result : undefined)  
  return response
}

To get a user

{
  user(input: {
    selector: {
      slug: "heregoestheslug"
    }
  }){
    result{
      username
      pageUrl
      karma
      maxPostCount
      commentCount
    }
  }
  
}

Or, as a JavaScript function

let graphQLendpoint = 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/graphql' // or https://www.lesswrong.com/graphql. Note that this is not the same as the graph*i*ql visual interface talked about in the post. 

async function fetchAuthor(slug){
  // note the async
  let response  = await fetch(graphQLendpoint, ({
    method: 'POST',
    headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
    body: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
       {
  user(input: {
    selector: {
      slug: "${slug}"
    }
  }){
    result{
      username
      pageUrl
      karma
      maxPostCount
      commentCount
    }
  }
  
}`
})),
  }))
  .then(res => res.json())
  .then(res => res.data.user? res.data.user.result : undefined)  
  return response
}

Thoughtful answer, thanks