I do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). I'm currently in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship
I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:
Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
I have also been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020, and have written Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms. I also generally enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.
Otherwise, I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. A good fraction of my research is available either on the EA Forum or on nunosempere.com. I'm particularly proud of my Estimating value series.
I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.
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The Litany of Might
I strive to take whatever steps may help me best to reach my goals,
I strive to be the very best at what I strive
There is no glory in bygone hopes,
There is no shame in aiming for the win,
there is no choice besides my very best,
to play my top moves and disregard the rest
That as well.
I was assigning less than 3% probability to ~plagiarism being the case, mostly based on Isusr not mentioning that at all in the original post + people seeing similarities where there are none. But seems that I was wrong.
Curious if you know where those people come from?
Sure, see here: https://imgur.com/a/pMR7Qw4
I'm not sure to what extent there's a "forecasting scene", or who is part of it.
There is a forecasting scene, made out of hobbyist forecasters and more hardcore prediction market players, and a bunch of researchers. The best prediction market people tend to have fairly sharp models of the world, particularly around elections. They also have a pretty high willingness to bet.
I've become a bit discouraged by the lack of positive reception for my forecasting newsletter on LessWrong, to which I've been publishing it since April 2020. For example, I thought that Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021 was excellent. It was very favorably reviewed by Scott Alexander here. I poured a bunch of myself into that newsletter. It got 18 karma.
I haven't bothered crossposting it to LW this month, but it continues in substack and on the EA forum.
This was hillarious, very fun to read.
Whoops, changed
Odds are an alternative way of presenting probabilities. 50% corresponds to 1:1, 66.66..% corresponds to 1:2, 90% corresponds to 1:9, etc. 33.33..% correspond to 2:1 odds, or, with the first number as as a 1, 1:0.5 odds.
Log odds, or bits, are the logarithm of probabilities expressed as 1:x odds. In some cases, they can be a more natural way of thinking about probabilities (see e.g., here.)
Couldn't they just get lower interest rate loans elsewhere?
This doesn't mean necessarily that you shouldn't take the bet, but maybe that you should also take the loan.
https://metaforecast.org/?query=ETH+merge -> https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos -> 59% by October, 87% by November.