I'm an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and aspiring effective altruist.
In the past, I've studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.
I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and a a good fraction of my research is available on nunosempere.github.io.
With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell, and I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also quite enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.
I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I'm working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term." You can share feedback anonymously with me here.
I made three quick predictions, of which I'm not really sure. Someone should do the Bayesian calculation with a reasonable prior to determine how likely is it than more than half of experts would answer some way given the answers by the 6 experts who did answer.
For some of these questions, I'd expect experts to care more about the specific details than I would. E.g., maybe for “The entire cortical network could be modeled as the repetition of a few relatively simple neural structures, arranged in a similar pattern even across different cortical areas” someone who spends a lot of time researching the minutiae of cortical regions is more likely to consider the sentence false.
Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth, by Chad Jones et al for a particular model, Economic growth under transformative AI for a comprehensive review.
Cheers, thanks! These are great
Two other examples:
I've come back to this occasionally, thanks. Here are two more snippets:
{
post(
input: {
selector: {
_id: "Here goes the id"
}
})
{
result {
_id
title
slug
pageUrl
postedAt
baseScore
voteCount
commentCount
meta
question
url
user {
username
slug
karma
maxPostCount
commentCount
}
}
}
}
or, as a JavaScript/node function:
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/graphql' // or https://www.lesswrong.com/graphql. Note that this is not the same as the graph*i*ql visual interface talked about in the post.
async function fetchPost(id){
// note the async
let response = await fetch(graphQLendpoint, ({
method: 'POST',
headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
body: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
{
post(
input: {
selector: {
_id: "${id}"
}
})
{
result {
_id
title
slug
pageUrl
postedAt
baseScore
voteCount
commentCount
meta
question
url
user {
username
slug
karma
maxPostCount
commentCount
}
}
}
}`
})),
}))
.then(res => res.json())
.then(res => res.data.post? res.data.post.result : undefined)
return response
}
{
user(input: {
selector: {
slug: "heregoestheslug"
}
}){
result{
username
pageUrl
karma
maxPostCount
commentCount
}
}
}
Or, as a JavaScript function
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/graphql' // or https://www.lesswrong.com/graphql. Note that this is not the same as the graph*i*ql visual interface talked about in the post.
async function fetchAuthor(slug){
// note the async
let response = await fetch(graphQLendpoint, ({
method: 'POST',
headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
body: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
{
user(input: {
selector: {
slug: "${slug}"
}
}){
result{
username
pageUrl
karma
maxPostCount
commentCount
}
}
}`
})),
}))
.then(res => res.json())
.then(res => res.data.user? res.data.user.result : undefined)
return response
}
Thoughtful answer, thanks
Oof, that means I get to change my predictions.