'Predicting random text on the internet better than a human' already qualifies it as superhuman, as dirichlet-to-neumann pointed out. If you look at any given text, there's a given ratio of cognitive work needed to produce the text, per word-count. "Superhuman" only requires asking it to replicate the work of multiple people collaborating together, or processes which need a lot of human labour like putting together a business strategy or writing a paper. Assuming it's mediocre in some aspects, the clearest advantage GPT-6 would have would be an interdisciplinary one - pooling together domain knowledge from disparate areas to produce valuable new insights.
How far away is this from being implementable?
This probably won't add too much to the discussion but I'm curious to see whether other people relate to this or have a similar process. I was kind of stunned when I heard from friends who got into composing about how difficult it is to figure out a melody and then write a complete piano piece because to me, whenever I open up Sibelius or Dorico (and more recently Ableton), internally it seems like I'm just listening to what I wrote so far, 'hearing' a possible continuation lasting a few bars, and then quickly trying to transcribe it before I forget it, or if I really want to be precise then just the next note-group. It doesn't really come from anywhere and it doesn't require any thought, but I can tell it's obviously taking up a share of my cognitive RAM from multitasking experiments, it's definitely influenced by the music I've listen to recently (e.g 1930s/40s jazz), and there are a lot of recognisable patterns. I gave up piano at Grade 1 and my theory went to Grade 2 (I think) where I stopped because I intensely despised it. I actively avoided formal instruction. It makes transcribing harder because I'm just clicking on notes to see if they match up with what's in my head and that interferes a lot with my memory, playing on an actual piano is even worse. So now what I do is use a phone app to record myself whistling 10-12 seconds of the 'top' melody, and then I play it back while making a new recording and I whistle the notes underneath it to, and I keep doing that until all the chords are right and the signal isn't too degraded. It's still very annoying. Something I should note is that I whistle whenever I'm alone pretty much obsessively and that's been the case since I was maybe eight or nine, especially to accompany whatever music is playing around me, and that I have mild autism. It makes me think that with pretty much any creative skill, there are unconscious cognitive modules/black-boxes in play that have been developed either through a lot of exposure or through the internalisation/automatisation of heuristics and rules, which are responsible for predicting small sequences of actions ("what note comes next?") or doing error-correction ("what sounds good?"). It's difficult to notice/interact directly with them, but it's possible when you override conscious controls. The easiest way to see this is to try asemic writing/typing – just typing or writing mindlessly and allowing your hands to just move by themselves. Once you get into the groove with asemic typing, you get Markov-chain-like strings of letters that reflect the character distribution of the language you type with, and sometimes common words like 'the' or 'and'. With asemic writing, you get common patterns of loops, vertical and horizontal lines, and connectors. I've seen what seems to be higher-level language modules at work when I'm in a semi-lucid verge-of-fully-waking-up/falling-asleep state where my eyes are open but I'm also in dreamspace at the same time (I have no idea how to describe this), and I can read an imaginary book in front of me or listen to someone, and it's just a fluent stream of meaningless babble often with a poetic quality to it, sometimes where consonants are carried over to the next word or semi-rhymes that would be a pain to come up with consciously.
So I've figured this out. Kinda. If you choose 'custom' then it will give you Griffin, but if you choose one of the conventional prompts and then edit it, you can get around it. So damn annoying.
Wow, I didn't realise I could get this angry about something so esoteric.
I'm beginning to think AID has changed what the "Dragon" model is without telling us for cost reasons, I've had kind of the same experience with big lapses in storytelling that didn't occur as often before. Or maybe it's randomly switching based on server load? I can kind of understand it if that's the case but the lack of transparency is annoying. I remember accidentally using the Griffin model for a day when my subscription ran out and not realising because its Indonesian was still quite good...
Somehow the more obvious explanation didn't occur to me until now, but check the settings, you might be using the Griffin model not the Dragon model. You have to change it manually even after you get the subscription. I have a window open specifically for poetry prompts (using the Oracle hack), I said "Write a long poem in Russian. Make sure the lines are long, vivid, rich, and full of description and life. It should be a love poem addressed to coffee. It should be 15 lines long" followed with "The Oracle, which is a native in Russian, writes: 1 Ой,". That just gave me annoying stuff like "Oh, coffee, how I love you so much/You are sweet" in Russian so I then added a random Pushkin poem in the 'death' category (https://rustih.ru/aleksandr-pushkin-tam-u-leska-za-blizhneyu-dolinoj/) before it to increase the quality and right now it just gave me:
1 Ой да промелькнул январский день,
2 Когда я словно трепетный цветок
3 Нежно расставил руки, 4 Когда ты, чаша чистейшего черного кофе,
5 С сияньем твоим, я так созерцал.
6 Молодость! Как радостны те часы!
7 И я, целованьем твоим так молодо
8 Неслучайно тыкал я туда,
9 Где только чувства, только сердце,
10 Ты, скромный чайный граней, теплый,
11 Несли ты, с радостным свеченьем ступеней,
12 В смолкновенья сладких сумерек
and so on and so on, stopped it there
I have no idea whether this is good since all I did was check with GTranslate to make sure it was roughly on topic, I would ask GPT-3 to translate it for me but I'm guessing you're a native speaker so you should be able to tell.
If it's a BPE encoding thing (which seems unlikely to me given that it was able to produce Japanese and Chinese characters just fine), then the implication is OpenAI carried over their encoding from GPT-2 where all foreign language documents were removed from the dataset ... I would have trouble believing their team would have overlooked something that huge. This is doubly bizarre given that Russian is the 5/6th most common language in the dataset. You may want to try prompting it with coherent Russian text, my best guess is that in the dataset, whenever somebody says "He said in Russian:", what usually follows is poor quality (for instance I see this in bad fanfiction where authors use machine translation services to add 'authenticity'), and that GPT-3 is interpreting this as a signal that it should produce bad Russian. I will give this a try and see if I encounter the same issue.
That's a visualisation I made which I haven't posted anywhere else except under the r/ML thread collecting entries for GPT-3 demos, since I couldn't figure out which subreddit to post it in.
Two thoughts, one of them significantly longer than the other since it's what I'm most excited about.
(1) It might be the case that the tasks showing an asymptotic trend will resemble the trend for arithmetic – a qualitative breakthrough was needed, which was out of reach at the current model size but became possible at a certain threshold.
(2) For translation, I can definitely say that scaling is doing something. When you narrowly define translation as BLEU score ("does this one generated sentence match the reference sentence? by how much?"), then I agree that the benefits of scaling are marginal – for individual sentences, by that specific metric.
But here's the thing, GPT-3 can produce idiomatically and culturally accurate translations of Chinese poetry, and then annotate its own translation with references to historical events, the literal versus contextual meaning of words, and so on. The end result actually sounds ... like poetry. But it can do other things. If you give it a Japanese text, and then tell it to translate for an American audience, it will either seamlessly explain those references in the translation, or substitute Japanese cultural references for their American equivalent entirely.
But it's deeper than this. Some non-English languages have honorifics attached to verbs. Some languages have distinctions between the plural and singular form of 'you'. Some languages have nouns that are inflected depending on whether the noun is in motion or not. Some languages have particles added to the ends of sentences that indicate whether the speaker is hesitant about the statement.
GPT-3 fills in the blanks by making real-world inferences.
If you told me a few years ago about a translation engine that could handle things like ambiguous pronouns, or keep track of speakers across several paragraphs, I would be amazed. If you'd told me about a translation engine that could accurately invent the appropriate missing information, or transfer nuances of the source into the target in a way that sounded natural, I flat-out wouldn't believe you.
Okay, so what else? Some languages have multiple registers that depend on social context or strongly regional dialects. Current translation engines use a parallel corpus – for instance, news outlets that translate the same article into multiple languages, or EU documents which get translated into all major EU languages – get featured very heavily in these kinds of corpora, so you end up getting a standardised, non-dialectal translation in a formal register.
GPT-3 is not limited by this. It can translate between dialects. It can translate between registers. It can pick up on things like "this story is set in Bandung" and "this character is a construction worker talking to a close friend, not a student talking to a teacher", and then have the character start code-mixing Indonesian with Sundanese in the low form. I haven't explored this deeply, but initial prompts are suggesting it's capable of rendering Indonesian tweets and phone texts (with their various abbreviations) into their equivalents in English.
Here's the kicker: Indonesian makes up only 0.05985% of GPT-3's training corpus.
And for that same reason, GPT-3 can handle tone. It can understand the connotative difference between someone describing themselves as "slim", "thin", and "scrawny", and then find a way to appropriately convey it in the target language – and if the target language doesn't have those separate shades of difference, and you tell it that conveying the difference unambiguously is very important to you, it will figure out ways to do it unprompted, like modifying the tone of surrounding words, or adding a simile where the character compares themselves to a skeleton, up to adding an entire extra scene that doesn't interrupt the main narrative just to make it clear.
(I have not seen it do this consistently, but on two occasions I have seen it invent new words in Indonesian, which uses affixes to modify root-forms - e.g 'memasak' = 'to cook', 'masakan' = 'a cook', etc., that a Google search verified weren't in the training corpus. Unfortunately in some situations, it will instead use a word with a different meaning but in the same category [e.g instead of 'striped turquoise midi-dress', you might get 'spotty blue wrap-dress'], when it judges the difference to be unimportant to the story. Good in some contexts but annoying in others.)
So this is all great. For anyone that consumes text media, I mean – not for translators (I doubt we'll be put out of a job but the skill requirement will drop considerably, I think) – it means a huge ocean of previously unreadable knowledge and entertainment is suddenly going to be accessible.
But I'm a language learner as well, and my guess is that this community might have more of us than the baseline average, so here are some other obvious but useful things it can do:
1. It can create arbitrary amounts of synthetic learning material.
This is a big deal for a few reasons.
(A) Sometimes, for less commonly-learned languages like Indonesian, there isn't much learning material available in the first place. The only Anki deck available is filled with sentences like "I can do it" and "John was angry at me". This is an issue if you want mass immersion. Quantity is an issue.
(B) Sometimes, there isn't material on stuff you're interested in, things that are relevant to you. Quality is an issue. The key thing that predicts learner performance is interest. If all the textbooks you're reading are oriented towards tourists and they're talking about hotels and making small-talk about the weather, and you want to read, I don't know, cute light-hearted yuri manga, or military strategy in the South China Sea, then you're screwed... unless you have GPT-3. If there's a particular grammatical feature you're having trouble internalising, then you provide GPT-3 with a few examples and it'll happily provide you with a hundred more. If there's a word that isn't sticking in your memory...
(C) A combination of A and B: the best way to learn a language is by actively using it. Constantly. Not just passively reading it, by producing it yourself. What hyperpolyglots recommend usually is going and living in the country that speaks your target language, or regularly having conversations with people who do. That's an issue if (1) you have problems with social anxiety (2) there aren't people nearby or (3) you aren't willing to uproot your entire life and spend tens of thousands of dollars just to learn a new language.
This is where AIDungeon's fine-tuned GPT-3 instance comes in. You select a scenario that involves the set of vocabulary you want to practice (if you're planning a trip to Hungary, you simulate a trip and the hotel-stay, if you're moving to a school, you simulate being a student at the International School of Budapest), or a story you could see yourself being invested in (horniness not precluded).
Then you customise it according to your level, the goal being comprehensible input that's just at the edge of your comfort zone. If you're an advanced learner with a lot of vocabulary under your belt, you use a handful of target-lang words to tell the model it's meant to be speaking Hungarian, not English, and you jump into the deep-end and enjoy participating in the story (writing your dialogue and prose, etc.) while adding any unknown vocab items to Anki. If you're a beginner, you should probably make a scenario involving a personal tutor who tests you after each lesson while introducing new words slowly and explaining concepts fully (see part II).
If you're an intermediate learner, things are tougher. There might be an easier way to do this than what I'm about to describe, which is part of the point of this post, since I want to get new ideas from the community. What I've found works for me is priming the model to produce English translations after target-lang sentences. When the target-lang sentence comes up, you try and guess the English translation before hitting the generate button. Cool, reading comprehension – done. If you want control over the narrative or you want to do this in inverse, you prepend each paragraph with either 'English [line number]' or 'target-lang [line number]', and then shuffle the order of those paired paragraphs randomly so it translates to target-lang when it sees English, and English when it sees target-lang. What about speaking/writing? Again, what works for me is talking in target-language pidgin, where you just use English for any words you don't know, and then priming the model to produce grammatically-correct translations after your shitty dialogue. Contrary to intuition, mixing like this is not at all harmful for language learning.
(D) Sentence pairs with translations are the mainstay of self-directed language-learning, because they're easy to find (mostly). But using language isn't all about translation. What part of speech is this? What if you wanted to vary things? Here is a conversation, what would be appropriate to say next? Clozes / filling in the gaps - what word would be most appropriate in this sentence? Is the meaning of this sentence closer to options A, B, C, or D? What register would you use in this social situation? Speak your response quickly then write it. Quick, name 10 words related to this word. See this paragraph? Summarise it. What about this argument, is it logically flawed? It's interesting how a lot of NLP datasets I've come across actually make for very good flashcards for language learning, which, I suppose isn't all that surprising.
II. It can explain things.
What's the difference between 'bantu' and 'tolong' – they both mean 'help', but how do you use them in sentences? I don't understand why the words are being ordered like this, explain the grammar to me. Why does this flashcard translate 'you' as 'loe', while another one uses 'kalian', or 'kamu', or 'kau' or 'Anda'? (For this, you need to prime it with a nonsense / meaningless question and have it say 'I don't know', otherwise it'll make up answers for things it doesn't know, or words that literally mean the same thing with no difference in usage whatsoever.)
But the great thing is, it can draw on real-world knowledge. You're never learning just a language. You're also learning the cultural context in which that language is used. If you try to do the former without doing the latter, some linguistic idiosyncrasies are going to remain mysterious to you until someone explains that the weird ungrammatical phrase you're having trouble understanding, actually came from a 1998 hit soap-opera and now it's just a part of the language. Or that this term is a historical one that refers to Sukarno's policy of civil-military integration. Or that the reason why none of the dialogue involves first-name usage is because it's super impolite to do that with someone you don't know well.
Sometimes you can scan the indices of appropriate textbooks, or do a google search. But sometimes there aren't textbooks, sometimes you don't even know what to search for, sometimes you're asking a question that's never been asked before. And I think that's the real power of GPT-3 as it exists right now – all of the human knowledge that's currently unindexed, informal, uninterpretable, implied, ambiguous, unclear and inaccessible – it makes available with a single query.
Or an hour finicking around and handwriting 20 examples until it cottons on.
But ... that happens more often with other contexts. Getting it to count parentheses accurately is like pulling teeth, but with translation tasks GPT-3 seems to go "aha! now this is something I'm good at!" and then explains the tonal differences between "神様" and "女神" in a Japanese poem about a lesbian sea-goddess it wrote five minutes ago. OpenAI's paper was doing GPT-3 a really, really big disservice by quantifying it by its BLEU score. When it comes to language, GPT-3 isn't a model, it's a maestro.