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On Overconfidence

1. What is your probability that there is a god? 
 1/1000 (If god is defined as an omnipotent, omniscient creator of all that is.) 
2. What is your probability that psychic powers exist? 
 1/1000
3. What is your probability that anthropogenic global warming will increase temperatures by at least 1C by 2050? 
 9/10
4. What is your probability that a pandemic kills at least one billion people in a 5 year period by 2100? 
 1/50
5. What is your probability that humans land on Mars by 2050? 
6/10
6. What is your probability that superintelligent AI (=AI better than almost every human at almost every cognitive task) exists by 2115? (Gjragl svir creprag)
6/10

Open & Welcome Thread October 2021

Hi there!

My name is Øystein, I am a physics student hoping for a career in science. I came upon LessWrong through Eliezer Yudkowsky's Wikipedia page, which I found through reading about AGI and transhumanism. I am currently reading through Rationality: A-Z, and I find it quite fascinating and inspiring. 

My interests include science (above all physics), philosophy, literature (SciFi in particular), technology, music (metal, jazz, ambient, experimental, ...) and fitness.