ojno

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Isn't singling out individual market participants as 'superforecasters', and privileging their individual predictions based on past performance, missing the whole point of prediction markets?

I find it to make sense, at least for public places like, say, shops, for a very simple reason: how do you tell if a random person has been vaccinated and is not merely lying to you that they have been vaccinated, as they have an incentive to do if they don't like wearing masks or whatever?