oops, sorry, I don't check LW often!

I use support to allow for a variety of outcomes - we might run it, we might fund someone to run it, we might fund someone and advise them etc.

What's the key factors that prevent the probabilities from being >90%?

Buy-in from important stakeholders (safety research groups, our funders etc.). That is not confirmed.

If the key bottleneck is someone to spearhead this as a full-time position

This isn't the key bottleneck, but thank you for this offer!

Thanks, Linda!

I agree with your claims about why this event might be valuable. In fact, I think 3 might be the biggest source of value.

I also agree AIS should be it's own thing, that was part of the motivation here. It seems big enough now to have it's own infrastructure (though I hope we'll still have lots of AIS researchers attend EAG/EAGx events).

Probabilities:

• 75% the CEA events team supports an event with at least 100 people with an AIS focus before end of 2024.
• 55% the CEA events team supports an event with at least 500 people with an AIS focus before end of 2024.

I work on the events team at CEA, and I'm currently (lightly) exploring supporting a global AGI safety conference in 2024. It probably won't be CEA-branded, or even EA-branded, I'm just keen to make it happen because we run a lot of conferences and it seems like we'd be able to handle the ops fairly well.

If you're interested in helping or giving feedback, feel free to reach out to me at ollie@eaglobal.org :)