He thinks it's very near zero if there is a gap.
If you half and don't think that your credence should be 2/3 in heads after finding out it's Monday you violate the conservation of evidence. If you're going to be told what time it is, your credence might go up but has no chance of going down--if it's day 2 your credence will spike to 100, if it's day 1 it wont' change.
Yes--Lewis held this, for instance, in the most famous paper on the topic.
Lots of people disagree with 2.
I didn't make a betting argument.
Impervious to reason? I sent you an 8,000 word essay giving reasons for it!
Just to be clear, I banned you because I find your comments to be annoying consistently. You are, in fact, the first commenter I've ever banned.
As for the question, they look at the various neural correlates of suffering on different theories, split their credence across them, and divy up the results based on expected consciousness. The report is more detailed.
https://benthams.substack.com/p/moral-realism-is-true
It may be imaginable, but if it's false, who cares. Like, suppose I argue, that fundamental reality has to meet constraint X and view Y is the only plausible view that does so. Listing off a bunch of random ones that meet constraint X but are false doesn't help you .
It's not that piece. It's another one that got eaten by a Substack glitch unfortuantely--hopefully it will be back up soon!