Adding on to that, these three links seem to be broken because of a stray %0A:
Alexander Wissner-Gross. Planetary-scale intelligence.
Tyler Cowen & Michael Vassar. Debate on the Great Stagnation.
Dileep George and Scott Brown. From planes to brains: building AI the Wright way.
I think that the answer to 2 is incorrect.
Yeah. According to Google, the experiment did find that people neglect base rates:
Kahneman and Tversky (1973) observed that the mean [estimate of the probability that Jack is an engineer] in the two groups, one receiving the base rate information 30 to 70, the other receiving 70 to 30, were for the most part the same
Ironically, when analyzing the experiment, the Vanity Fair writers failed Bayes theorem in the opposite way: neglecting evidence, thus making the posterior equal to the prior.
We conclude that people don't understand Bayes.
Yup.
Students manage conflicts by simply skipping class sessions. Last semester, I often skipped two thirds of my class sessions. As long as you read lecture notes, do the work, and show up to tests, you're fine.
At MIT, some students take 8+ classes over ~15 weeks. This involves lots of busywork and an expectation of getting the highest grade (an A). [They also often do side projects.]
Scott Young aims to complete classes at the same rate. But he's skipping much of the busywork and requiring merely passing grades. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls it off.
I'm an MIT student and currently spend 60-100 hours/class. Taking Young's approach, I could probably average 30 hours/class, which for 33 classes might be doable in about 2 months... Maybe doing 33 MIT classes in 1 month is something for a Tim Ferriss.
So, if I were to make you a bet that #1-and-#2 is true [then you should rationally accept it if] gjmgain0.01>owengain0.99..
If you seriously made such a bet, then gjm would probably update on that evidence and revise his 99% probability upwards.
[But as gjm says the bet is impractical anyway because it's too hard to resolve]
nobody has bothered much with trying to steer [discussions] closer to reality
Feels like you have forbidden knowledge. Not coincidentally, I want to know what it is.
What is it roughly? That innate differences across the sexes play a strong role in causing statistically different mating behaviors to develop? That these differences end up somewhat resembling "females want high-value sex and a devoted father while males want sex and sexually faithful partners"? That females are often attracted to high value behavior (e.g. PUA stuff)? That many people have some, possibly very vague, estimate of how sexually valuable they are, and act upon this belief? Is there any way you can quench my curiosity? It... (read more)
Previous discussion on the same video: http://lesswrong.com/lw/2xe/interesting_talk_on_bayesians_and_frequentists/
Simon Cowell is known as the brutally honest [singing contest] judge. He worked himself up in the music industry and doesn't seem to be a nutjob. Personally, I think his name is good for the reputation of cryonics.
Here's a poetic blog post by Julian Assange (source). I found the first paragraph relevant:
... (read 514 more words →)27 Aug 2007 - Irrationality in Argument
The truth is not found on the page, but is a wayward sprite that bursts forth from the readers mind for reasons of its own. I once thought that the Truth was a set comprised of all the things that were true, and the big truth could be obtained by taking all its component propositions and evaluating them until nothing remained. I would approach my rhetorical battles as a logical reductionist, tearing down, atomizing, proving, disproving, discarding falsehoods and reassembling truths until the Truth was pure, golden and unarguable. But then, when
If you use the Bayes approach with a Beta(x,y) prior, all you do is for each post add x to the # of upvotes, add y to the # of downvotes, and then compute the % of votes which are upvotes. [1]
In my college AI class we used this exact method with x=y=1 to adjust for low sample size. Someone should switch out the clunky frequentist method reddit apparently uses with this Bayesian method!
[1] This seems to be what it says in the pdf.