Thank you, I've now had time to read your post a second time and parse your other questions. Here are my answers.
(What is counterparty risk, by the way?)
The CDC will be an adequate source for this. I don't know and can't figure out how to find out when they'll next release an estimate of how common ASDs are. If they do it before the DSM-V comes out or shortly after it comes out, then I would wait and take not the next but the one after. If they wait until the DSM-V has been in use for a while, and I'm not sure how long a while should be, then maybe just... (read more)
Then St. Elsewhere, rather than the comic, is problematic and wrong. Thank you; I wouldn't have known that had you not told me.
I'm still glad to have put that up on tumblr because I still don't want people thinking that's an accurate portrayal of autism.
I hereby claim that I am not-allistic on tumblr.
I predict that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders is done increasing because it has all come from better diagnosis. The autism rate in children has now reached one in 88; the autism rate in adults is estimated at one in 86. We just went within my error bars.
There are two things that I think could confuse the issue. The first is that the DSM-V will come out soon. If, following the DSM-V, diagnosticians continue exactly what they're currently doing, except that they diagnose all autism spectrum disorders as autistic disorder (which will not affect the one in 88 statistic because Asperger's and PDD-NOS have always been part of it), then the... (read 615 more words →)
Thank you. Yes, this is possible, but the increase in those groups would end up exactly matching the decrease in adult rates from learning coping skills so well as to be undiagnosable and that seems unlikely to me. Why shouldn't one be vastly more or less?
Anyway, I'm going to make the article now. If you want to continue this, we can do it there.
I'm here to make one public prediction that I want to be as widely-read as possible. I'm here to predict publicly that the apparent increase in autism prevalence is over. It's important to predict it because it distinguishes between the position that autism is increasing unstoppably for no known reason (or because of vaccines) and the position that autism has not increased in prevalence, but diagnosis has increased in accuracy and a greater percentage of people with autism spectrum disorders are being diagnosed. It's important that this be as widely-read as possible as soon as possible because the next time prevalence estimates come out, I will be shown right or wrong. I... (read more)
I concur, he's not worth taking seriously. However, when he and less-ranty people say the same things all the time and they're aimed at you, it hurts less if you point out (not in any of his spaces, obviously) that he's being irrational and ridiculous. You are correct that engaging with him directly would be a bad idea and writing a thoughtful critique of his ideas would probably be wasted effort. That's why you don't see me commenting on his blogs. I'm just needling here. It's also there for anyone else who's read his stuff and felt insulted, angry or heartsick to read and realize no one believes him. (My entire online not-allistic identity is designed to make autistic people feel better when they read it.) Best is also so easy to mock that I'm not fully convinced he's not a troll, but that's a lot of effort for a troll to go to over quite a long period of time.
Thank you for your advice, however.