For me the linked site with the statement doesn't load. And this was also the case when I first tried to access it yesterday. Seems less than ideal. 

Thanks!

How does this coefficient relate to the maximal slope (i.e. at the 50%-x)?

Very possible. 

I plan to watch this a bit longer and also analyse how the trend changes with repo size. 

The way METR time horizons tie into AI 2027 is very narrow: As a trend not even necessarily on coding/software engineering skills but on machine learning engineering. I think that is hard to attack except by claiming that the trend will taper off. AI 2027 does not require unrealistic generalisation. 

The reason why I think that time horizons are much more solid evidence of AI progress then earlier benchmarks, is that the calculated time horizons explain the trends in AI-assisted coding over the last few years very well. For example it's not by chance that "vibe coding" became a thing when it became a thing. 

I have computed time horizon trends for more general software engineering tasks (i.e. with a bigger context) and my preliminary results point towards a logistic trend, i.e. the exponential is already tapering off. However, I am still pretty uncertain about that. 

And why would anybody do that?

I think babysitting a baby is not very informative about whether you would enjoy having kids. Having a kid is first and foremost about having the deepest and most meaningful emotional connection of your life. 

Take that away and you just don't have a sensible test run. It's like finding out whether you like hiking by going up and down the stairs of your apartment building all morning. 

Having kids is like having parents, except the emotional connection is stronger in the other direction. Would you rather have grown up in an orphanage if that had meant more time for your hobbies and other goals? 

I think the most important thing has not been mentioned yet: 

How you dress and take care of yourself is the very first and often only impression of how much you have your shit together. Having your shit together - doing the things you need to do in time and doing them well - is the most important trait in a long-term partner. 

If the one clearly fucked up receptor copy is sufficient for your "symptoms", it seems pretty likely that one of your parents should have them too. I think there is no reason to expect a denovo mutation to be particularly likely in your case (unlike in cases that lead to severe disfunction). And of course you can check for that by sequencing your parents.

So my money would be on the second copy also being sufficiently messed up that you have basically no fully functioning oxytocin receptors. If you have siblings and you are the only odd one in the family, you could make a pretty strong case for both copies being messed up, by showing that you are the only one with the combination of frameshift in one copy and particular SNPs in the other. (If you are not the only odd one you can make an even stronger case). 

Seems a lot harder to write a post a day if one is not holed up in Lighthaven.