I don't think this logic is quite right. In particular, the relative price of compute to labor has changed by many orders of magnitude over the same period (compute has decreased in price a lot, wages have grown). Unless compute and labor are perfect complements, you should expect the ratio of compute to labor to be changing as well.
To understand how substitutable compute and labor are, you need to see how the ratio of compute to labor is changing relative to price changes. We try to run through these numbers here.
Ben Todd here gets into the numbers a little bit. I think the rough argument is that after 2028, the next training run would be $100bn which becomes difficult to afford.
I don't think this logic is quite right. In particular, the relative price of compute to labor has changed by many orders of magnitude over the same period (compute has decreased in price a lot, wages have grown). Unless compute and labor are perfect complements, you should expect the ratio of compute to labor to be changing as well.
To understand how substitutable compute and labor are, you need to see how the ratio of compute to labor is changing relative to price changes. We try to run through these numbers here.