Pat Myron

Importantly, OpenAI is intentionally unprofitable and Profit Participation Unit holders have no voting rights to do much about that

equity

Last I checked, OpenAI offered profit-sharing rather than traditional equity: https://www.levels.fyi/blog/openai-compensation.html

100ms rather than 1 second, or even 1 second rather than 1 hour. If you can think of a case where it would be useful to have a very fast reaction to the sort of question that appears on prediction markets

Great post. Tangentially noting the vast majority of 2025's prediction market volume is live events ("79% of Kalshi’s recent volumes have been related to sports") where auctions as infrequent as hourly fundamentally changes that offering

I recently collected a large premium
mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items

Manifold's accuracy lags because premiums collected aren't nearly as large as their digits imply

detailed limit source: https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/

This also misses the time value of money; fixed heuristics don't capture that the effect is more pronounced the further out the settlement date is (already prediction markets with 2030s settlement dates)

No one believes the Jesus market will resolve to Yes

That's why I chose that market as an example of incentives being unilaterally broken in a single direction; ~everyone agrees that ~3% market won't happen, but no one has much incentive to trade in that direction collecting >$30k USD correcting that market because that'd return lower than the risk-free rate. Both posts similarly claim interest rates are essential to understanding how much prediction markets reflect actual event probabilities, and interest rate distortion becomes more unilaterally directional the further a market should be from 50%

For the market to be trading at 16%, there need to be market participants on both sides of the trade

Assuming a market is trading.. Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket all display percentages on markets that have literally never had any volume, so UIs mislead those not inspecting orderbooks/volume/etc. Currently, Kalshi is the only one of those that even requires limit orders placed in the orderbook to start displaying percentages

> why would anyone buy Yes
> there’s an equal number of Yes and No shares circulating

at unequal pricing. For those heeding return rates, incentives to buy away from 50% are limited before incentives to buy towards 50%. In markets around 1%, one only needs a bit over 1.01% for more incentive than any possible return in the other direction; therefore, incentives can be unilaterally broken in a single direction:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025

 

Another example: CPAP compliance/adherence rates

Further, the SAT used to be much harder. In 1991, only nine students scored a 1600, whereas people estimate that over 500 students achieve a perfect score today.

Those numbers don't support that claim because of:

1. More intelligent students (Flynn effect)
2. >50% more HS students
3. Higher standardized test participation among HS students (test takers ~doubled with only >50% more students)

+1 to be able to check notifications, messages, and specific posts here without seeing newsfeeds:
https://github.com/jordwest/news-feed-eradicator/issues/253
https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/issues/6640

+1 for these forum logos to be added to FontAwesome:
https://github.com/FortAwesome/Font-Awesome/issues/19536