100ms rather than 1 second, or even 1 second rather than 1 hour. If you can think of a case where it would be useful to have a very fast reaction to the sort of question that appears on prediction markets

Great post. Tangentially noting the vast majority of 2025's prediction market volume is live events ("79% of Kalshi’s recent volumes have been related to sports") where auctions as infrequent as hourly fundamentally changes that offering

I recently collected a large premium
mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items

Manifold's accuracy lags because premiums collected aren't nearly as large as their digits imply

detailed limit source: https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/

This also misses the time value of money; fixed heuristics don't capture that the effect is more pronounced the further out the settlement date is (already prediction markets with 2030s settlement dates)

Another example: CPAP compliance/adherence rates

Further, the SAT used to be much harder. In 1991, only nine students scored a 1600, whereas people estimate that over 500 students achieve a perfect score today.

Those numbers don't support that claim because of:

1. More intelligent students (Flynn effect)
2. >50% more HS students
3. Higher standardized test participation among HS students (test takers ~doubled with only >50% more students)

doesn't track the time value of money in the global economy

(Ignoring liquidity rewards) Therefore, other platform users have access to similar lucrative return rates (Polymarket and Manifold fund liquidity without meaningful revenue) as those fireselling, so best returns may be ignoring obvious longterm markets altogether:
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3#jdUj58EdDXBbF8ZNyXaT
 

reflect true probabilities, especially for low-probability events

Polymarket could consider at least being explicit about that limitation and disallow wagers beyond 99% like Kalshi and Manifold currently do: