I think you might be misunderstanding my points here. In particular, regarding point 2, I'm not suggesting that the waqfs split, or that anything at all like that might have happened. The “split waqfs” point is just meant to illustrate the fact that, when waqf failures are correlated for whatever reason, arbitrarily many closures with zero long-term survivors can be compatible with a relatively low annual hazard rate. The failure of a billion waqfs would be a valid observation, but it would be an observation compatible with the belief that the probability that a new waqf survives a millennium is non-negligible.
In any event--I should probably have reached... (read more)
Hi gwern, thanks for the reply.
I think you might be misunderstanding my points here. In particular, regarding point 2, I'm not suggesting that the waqfs split, or that anything at all like that might have happened. The “split waqfs” point is just meant to illustrate the fact that, when waqf failures are correlated for whatever reason, arbitrarily many closures with zero long-term survivors can be compatible with a relatively low annual hazard rate. The failure of a billion waqfs would be a valid observation, but it would be an observation compatible with the belief that the probability that a new waqf survives a millennium is non-negligible.
In any event--I should probably have reached... (read more)