The AI trade is still a very good bet. Increased political uncertainty makes all investments today somewhat less promising than was the case when I wrote about this topic in July 2025. Regulation of AI is likely to increase over the next 2 years or so, constraining growth somewhat. But...
Book review: Obsolete: The AI Industry’s Trillion Dollar Race to Replace Us? and How to Stop It, by Garrison Lovely. Obsolete is a strange book. It’s mostly good, but the quality varies a good deal. Lovely is well informed about concerns that AI might kill us all, and doesn’t dispute...
The folks who wrote AI 2027 have written a more optimistic narrative, which focuses more on hopes for good policies than on predictions about what policies we’ll get. Plan A’s narrative seems halfway between a science fiction story and a proposed treaty. Like most science fiction, I expect it to...
Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright. Some AI doomers talk about AI becoming god-like. Robert Wright goes further, telling us that the world is about to create God, in a sense that he only half-jokingly compares to the Christian version of...
I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be. My median estimates: The S&P 500 will drop 27.8%. AI subsectors will drop 34-69%. Interest rates will rise...
Book review: The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, by Sebastian Mallaby. This book is a very good history of DeepMind. Ender versus the pure scientist An important theme of the book is that Hassabis identifies as pure scientist, valuing knowledge for its own sake. He...