Book Review: The AGI Chronicles: The Inside Story of the Race to Create an Artificial Superintelligence, by Kevin Roose. This is a story of AI as seen through the eyes of the people who are creating it. My first impression of Roose was of his famous conversation with Sydney. I...
The AI trade is still a very good bet. Increased political uncertainty makes all investments today somewhat less promising than was the case when I wrote about this topic in July 2025. Regulation of AI is likely to increase over the next 2 years or so, constraining growth somewhat. But...
Book review: Obsolete: The AI Industry’s Trillion Dollar Race to Replace Us? and How to Stop It, by Garrison Lovely. Obsolete is a strange book. It’s mostly good, but the quality varies a good deal. Lovely is well informed about concerns that AI might kill us all, and doesn’t dispute...
The folks who wrote AI 2027 have written a more optimistic narrative, which focuses more on hopes for good policies than on predictions about what policies we’ll get. Plan A’s narrative seems halfway between a science fiction story and a proposed treaty. Like most science fiction, I expect it to...
Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright. Some AI doomers talk about AI becoming god-like. Robert Wright goes further, telling us that the world is about to create God, in a sense that he only half-jokingly compares to the Christian version of...
I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be. My median estimates: The S&P 500 will drop 27.8%. AI subsectors will drop 34-69%. Interest rates will rise...