We can only value lives at $10 million when we have limited opportunities to make that trade, or we’d go bankrupt.
I'm suspicious of the implication that we have many such opportunities. But a quick check suggests says it's very dependent on guesses as to how many lives are saved be treatments.
I did a crude check for lives saved by cancer treatments. Optimistic estimates suggest that lives are being saved at less than $1 million per life. Robin Hanson's writings have implied that the average medical treatments is orders of magnitude less effective than that.
Could last year's revamping of OpenAI's board have been influenced by government pressure to accept some government-approved board members? Nakasone's appointment is looking more interesting after reading this post.
Soaking seeds overnight seems to be a good way to reduce phytic acid.
oral probiotics in general might just all be temporary.
The solution to concerns about it being temporary is to take them daily. I take Seed Daily Synbiotic. My gut is probably better as a result, but I don't have evidence that is at all rigorous.
The beginning of this comment is how Lintern expands on that claim. But it sounds like you have an objection that isn't well addressed there.
If cancer merely involved one bad feature, I could imagine software analogies that involved a large variety of mistakes producing that one bad feature.
The hallmarks of cancer indicate that all cancers have a number of bad features in common that look sufficiently unrelated to each other that it seems hard to imagine large sets of unrelated mutations all producing those same hallmarks. Lintern lists many other features that could be considered additional hallmarks.
When I try to imagine software problems that seem analogous to cancer, I come up with problems such as spam where there's an optimizer that's generating the problems.
I'm unclear whether you're imagining software problems that I haven't thought of, or whether you're modeling cancer differently from me.
Maybe? It doesn't seem very common for infectious diseases to remain in one area. It depends a lot on how they are transmitted. It's also not unusual for a non-infectious disease to have significant geographical patterns. There are cancers which are concentrated in particular areas, but there seem to be guesses for those patterns that don't depend on fungal infections.
Thanks. You've convinced me that Lintern overstates the evidence of mutation-free cancer cells.
But you seem to have missed really obvious consequences of the fungi theory, like, "wouldn't it be infectious then",
I very much did not miss that.
containing some potentially pretty dangerous advice like "don't do chemotherapy".
Where did I say that?
Enough that it should have been noticed.
My guess is that almost nobody looks for this kind of connection.
Even if they do notice it, they likely conclude that pathogens are just another small influence on cancer risk.
Brain emulation looks closer than your summary table indicates.
Manifold estimates a 48% chance by 2039.
Eon Systems is hiring for work on brain emulation.