The folks who wrote AI 2027 have written a more optimistic narrative, which focuses more on hopes for good policies than on predictions about what policies we’ll get. Plan A’s narrative seems halfway between a science fiction story and a proposed treaty. Like most science fiction, I expect it to...
Book review: The God Test: Artificial Intelligence and Our Coming Cosmic Reckoning, by Robert Wright. Some AI doomers talk about AI becoming god-like. Robert Wright goes further, telling us that the world is about to create God, in a sense that he only half-jokingly compares to the Christian version of...
I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be. My median estimates: The S&P 500 will drop 27.8%. AI subsectors will drop 34-69%. Interest rates will rise...
Book review: The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, by Sebastian Mallaby. This book is a very good history of DeepMind. Ender versus the pure scientist An important theme of the book is that Hassabis identifies as pure scientist, valuing knowledge for its own sake. He...
What a weekend. Two new wars in Asia don't qualify as top news. My first reaction to Hegseth's conflict with Anthropic was along the lines of: I expected an attempt at quasi-nationalization of AI, but not this soon. And I expected it to look like it was managed by national...
TL;DR: Anthropic has made important progress at setting good goals for AIs. More work is still needed. Anthropic has introduced a constitution that has a modest chance of becoming as important as the US constitution (Summary and discussion here). It's a large improvement over how AI companies were training ethics...