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Regarding your second strike pledge: it would of course be wildly disingenuous to remember Petrov's action, which was not jumping to retaliation, by doing the opposite and jumping to retaliation.

I believe you know this, and would guess that if in fact one of the sites went down, you'd do nothing but instead later post about your moral choice of not retaliating.

(I'd also guess, if you choose to respond to this comment, it'd be to reiterate the pledge to retaliate, as you've done elsewhere. This does make sense--threats must be unequivocal to be believed, even if follow through is illogical.)

Furthermore, the way for someone to test your intention to follow through or not... is to push the red button. By posting this here and on the EA forum, you may have actually increased the motivation to push the button, so that the pushee can see what you do in response.