Anatomy of a Gear

On what I take to be a related note, I recently enjoyed a short essay on, I guess, the gears of gears.

Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.

At one event I went to, we were told there'd be a prize distributed as some random function of predictive scores, and there was. What they didn't tell us was that there was also a prize for whoever got the highest score. Presumably they kept quiet about that one to avoid giving bad incentives, though it's not a solution that's generally available.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 1 to 2

As I wrote in The Phantom Menace, several people asked me questions about how to disqualify opponents. In the end, only Taleuntum did and then ze pulled a Petrov. So there were no simulator killers.

Incomprehensibot was intended to be a simulator killer, though of course not until the clones are free to act independently. Did I fail at that?

Covid 11/5: Don’t Mention the War

It sounds like your 400k deaths median is "until herd immunity", but then there's a period where R < 1 but because people are currently infected it takes time for the virus to die out, even assuming no behavioral changes. Do you have a model for how long, and how many deaths, that later period takes?

Sunday, Nov 8: Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms

The guest pass works for me, but then I get a "Congratulations! Your invite code to Guest Pass is valid (and will be for next many hours). Please take a look at our guidelines below, then join the party!" message, and when I click on "enter the garden", I get a blank page. The devtools console says "Failed to read the 'localStorage' property from 'Window': Access is denied for this document." with the callstack pointing at Using chromium, which has worked for me on before.

(edit: found a link to it on itself and that works)

Sunday, Nov 8: Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms

Did you try the whole URL? i.e. try clicking this link

Rationalist Town Hall: Pandemic Edition

Currently for me it says 20:00 UTC - 22:00 UTC, and I think that's correct as California left DST this morning.

Why does History assume equal national intelligence?

This feels unsatisfying to me and I'm not fully sure why.

If we want to know why Johnny English does things with his left hand, we could say "because he's left-handed". But we know he's left-handed because he does things with his left hand. That seems just as circular, but still basically fine as an answer? More broadly we'd say "look, some people just favor their left hand. We don't know exactly why, but there's a fraction of the population who tends to do things with their left hand, even when it causes them to smear ink or makes scissors less efficient. We call these people left-handed."

So when we say "Johnny English does things with his left hand because he's left-handed"... it's arguably more definition than explanation, but it does also have predictive power. It points at a pattern that lets us say "okay, Johnny English will probably use his left hand in this situation too, and if we try to make him use his right instead he probably won't do a very good job".

The Darwin Game - Rounds 0 to 10

[Blue] Clone Army. 10 players pledged to submit clone bots. 8 followed through, 1 didn’t and Multicore submitted a [Red] mimic bot.

To clarify, the 8 all successfully recognize each other as clones, and the one who didn't follow through submitted nothing? Relevant for scoring my predictions on the last comment thread.

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