philip_b

Comments

mike_hawke's Shortform

After having listened to "Soon it Will be Cold Enough" about 7 times, I must say I agree. I like "Good Knight", "Anthem", and "When I Go" most.

"When I Go" is very solsticy because of the repeating words "When I go, I will be long gone" which I think is about death. There is "The Darkest Evening of the Year" which, I guess, is exactly about the winter solstice.

P.s. "Father King" is not a part of "Soon it Will be Cold Enough", so I've never listened to it. Will try now.

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

After reading other comments I was surprised. I wondered if auto_sklearn gave such bad estimates because I encoded categorical features myself in a way which is not very suitable for it. I wanted to see if I can tinker with it to get it to give me a better answer. I let it choose how to encode categorical features on its own. I got a better mean absolute error and got predictions, which are very different for Hammer of Capability, Pendant of Truth, Ring of Joy, Pendant of Hope:

item enchantment refinement color thaum y_pred price y_pred/price
Longsword Wounding 2 red 14 27.306131 66 0.413729
Warhammer Justice 1 yellow 5 19.637162 41 0.478955
Hammer Capability 0 blue 35 30.566119 35 0.873318
Pendant Truth 0 red 40 22.123613 38 0.582200
Ring Joy 5 blue 29 6.358711 32 0.198710
Warhammer Flame 2 yellow 48 20.296373 65 0.312252
Battleaxe Glory 0 blue 7 6.949717 23 0.302162
Plough Plenty 0 yellow 12 19.923753 35 0.569250
Saw Capability 1 green 16 18.042059 35 0.515487
Amulet Wounding 2 green 50 22.919911 35 0.654855
Pendant Hope 0 blue 77 54.058931 34 1.589969
Pendant Joy 4 green 42 25.158531 39 0.645091

With these new predictions, I think I can buy Pendant of Hope, Hammer of Capability, Amulet of Wounding, Pendant of Joy, and Pendant of Truth to get approximately 154.83 mana for 181 gold. That's what I do. Although I understand that this is cheating, since I've seen other people's answers.

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

Solution:

I send the owl back to Wakalix with all of his 200 gp and the following letter attached

Dear Wakalix the Wizard, Unfortunately, the items that are currently sold by the caravans, can't provide 120 mana for 200 gp. If you are in dire need of 120 mana, please provide me 300 gp instead of 200 gp.

Explanation:

I fit auto-sklearn to the training data, got 7.44 mana mean absolute error and got the following predictions for the test data:

item enchantment refinement color thaum y_pred price y_pred/price
Longsword Wounding 2 red 14 24.8726 66 0.376857
Warhammer Justice 1 yellow 5 18.6423 41 0.454691
Hammer Capability 0 blue 35 12.0596 35 0.344561
Pendant Truth 0 red 40 12.0792 38 0.317874
Ring Joy 5 blue 29 17.9164 32 0.559888
Warhammer Flame 2 yellow 48 20.3161 65 0.312555
Battleaxe Glory 0 blue 7 8.35728 23 0.36336
Plough Plenty 0 yellow 12 19.5171 35 0.557631
Saw Capability 1 green 16 19.4064 35 0.554468
Amulet Wounding 2 green 50 23.8462 35 0.681319
Pendant Hope 0 blue 77 13.0694 34 0.384395
Pendant Joy 4 green 42 29.5016 39 0.756451

From these predictions (the y_pred column), it seems I can't get 120 mana for 200 gp. I could get about 110 mana by buying Amulet of Wounding +2, Pendant of Joy +4, Ring of Joy +5, Plough of Plenty, Saw of Capability +1 for 176 gp. If I had a little bit more gold, I could add Warhammer of Justic +1, that'll be approximately 129 mana for 217 gp, but that would be risky, I could easily end up indebted to Wakalix.

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

Do we know that the old and the new records are i.i.d.?

Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns

Yesterday I've got the first does of Sputnik V, yay! And will get the second does in 21 days. Now, what do I need to know? How does my probability of getting infected change? How does the expected harm if I get infected change? Will I still be able to be a carrier and infect others without having symptoms myself?

[LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party

Do you NEED song suggestions? Or are very good song suggestions merely a nice bonus?

100 Tips for a Better Life

I've tried working with 2 monitors (instead of my laptop's display) for a few months, and it doesn't do anything for me. I didn't feel more productive, I barely noticed any improvement. The downside was greater - I was tethered to my table and my chair instead of being free to sit or lay in all the different places in my apartment. This is very bad for me, because my back and a leg ache ache very annoyingly if I sit in one place without moving for a long time. Thus, I ditched the monitors and now I happily work on my laptop's display.

[LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party

If I don't use Facebook, what do I need to subscribe to get updates? By updates I mean things like "Calendar of activities... we'll share the spreadsheet shortly". Can you post all updates in the comments of this post? In that case I'll subscribe to new comments.

Covid 12/17: The First Dose

Can you elaborate? Where can I read about it?

Load More