After reading other comments I was surprised. I wondered if auto_sklearn gave such bad estimates because I encoded categorical features myself in a way which is not very suitable for it. I wanted to see if I can tinker with it to get it to give me a better answer. I let it choose how to encode categorical features on its own. I got a better mean absolute error and got predictions, which are very different for Hammer of Capability, Pendant of Truth, Ring of Joy, Pendant of Hope:
| item | enchantment | refinement | color | thaum | y_pred | price | y_pred/price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longsword | Wounding | 2 | red | 14 | 27.306131 | 66 | 0.413729 |
| Warhammer | Justice | 1 | yellow | 5 | 19.637162 | 41 | 0.478955 |
| Hammer | Capability | 0 | blue | 35 | 30.566119 | 35 | 0.873318 |
| Pendant | Truth | 0 | red | 40 | 22.123613 | 38 | 0.582200 |
| Ring | Joy | 5 | blue | 29 | 6.358711 | 32 | 0.198710 |
| Warhammer | Flame | 2 | yellow | 48 | 20.296373 | 65 | 0.312252 |
| Battleaxe | Glory | 0 | blue | 7 | 6.949717 | 23 | 0.302162 |
| Plough | Plenty | 0 | yellow | 12 | 19.923753 | 35 | 0.569250 |
| Saw | Capability | 1 | green | 16 | 18.042059 | 35 | 0.515487 |
| Amulet | Wounding | 2 | green | 50 | 22.919911 | 35 | 0.654855 |
| Pendant | Hope | 0 | blue | 77 | 54.058931 | 34 | 1.589969 |
| Pendant | Joy | 4 | green | 42 | 25.158531 | 39 | 0.645091 |
With these new predictions, I think I can buy Pendant of Hope, Hammer of Capability, Amulet of Wounding, Pendant of Joy, and Pendant of Truth to get approximately 154.83 mana for 181 gold. That's what I do. Although I understand that this is cheating, since I've seen other people's answers.
Solution:
I send the owl back to Wakalix with all of his 200 gp and the following letter attached
Dear Wakalix the Wizard, Unfortunately, the items that are currently sold by the caravans, can't provide 120 mana for 200 gp. If you are in dire need of 120 mana, please provide me 300 gp instead of 200 gp.
Explanation:
I fit auto-sklearn to the training data, got 7.44 mana mean absolute error and got the following predictions for the test data:
| item | enchantment | refinement | color | thaum | y_pred | price | y_pred/price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longsword | Wounding | 2 | red | 14 | 24.8726 | 66 | 0.376857 |
| Warhammer | Justice | 1 | yellow | 5 | 18.6423 | 41 | 0.454691 |
| Hammer | Capability | 0 | blue | 35 | 12.0596 | 35 | 0.344561 |
| Pendant | Truth | 0 | red | 40 | 12.0792 | 38 | 0.317874 |
| Ring | Joy | 5 | blue | 29 | 17.9164 | 32 | 0.559888 |
| Warhammer | Flame | 2 | yellow | 48 | 20.3161 | 65 | 0.312555 |
| Battleaxe | Glory | 0 | blue | 7 | 8.35728 | 23 | 0.36336 |
| Plough | Plenty | 0 | yellow | 12 | 19.5171 | 35 | 0.557631 |
| Saw | Capability | 1 | green | 16 | 19.4064 | 35 | 0.554468 |
| Amulet | Wounding | 2 | green | 50 | 23.8462 | 35 | 0.681319 |
| Pendant | Hope | 0 | blue | 77 | 13.0694 | 34 | 0.384395 |
| Pendant | Joy | 4 | green | 42 | 29.5016 | 39 | 0.756451 |
From these predictions (the y_pred column), it seems I can't get 120 mana for 200 gp. I could get about 110 mana by buying Amulet of Wounding +2, Pendant of Joy +4, Ring of Joy +5, Plough of Plenty, Saw of Capability +1 for 176 gp. If I had a little bit more gold, I could add Warhammer of Justic +1, that'll be approximately 129 mana for 217 gp, but that would be risky, I could easily end up indebted to Wakalix.
Do we know that the old and the new records are i.i.d.?
Yesterday I've got the first does of Sputnik V, yay! And will get the second does in 21 days. Now, what do I need to know? How does my probability of getting infected change? How does the expected harm if I get infected change? Will I still be able to be a carrier and infect others without having symptoms myself?
Do you NEED song suggestions? Or are very good song suggestions merely a nice bonus?
Wham! - Last Christmas
I've tried working with 2 monitors (instead of my laptop's display) for a few months, and it doesn't do anything for me. I didn't feel more productive, I barely noticed any improvement. The downside was greater - I was tethered to my table and my chair instead of being free to sit or lay in all the different places in my apartment. This is very bad for me, because my back and a leg ache ache very annoyingly if I sit in one place without moving for a long time. Thus, I ditched the monitors and now I happily work on my laptop's display.
If I don't use Facebook, what do I need to subscribe to get updates? By updates I mean things like "Calendar of activities... we'll share the spreadsheet shortly". Can you post all updates in the comments of this post? In that case I'll subscribe to new comments.
Can you elaborate? Where can I read about it?
After having listened to "Soon it Will be Cold Enough" about 7 times, I must say I agree. I like "Good Knight", "Anthem", and "When I Go" most.
"When I Go" is very solsticy because of the repeating words "When I go, I will be long gone" which I think is about death. There is "The Darkest Evening of the Year" which, I guess, is exactly about the winter solstice.
P.s. "Father King" is not a part of "Soon it Will be Cold Enough", so I've never listened to it. Will try now.