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Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

(EDIT: See below.) I'm afraid that I am now confused. I'm not clear on what you mean by "these traits", so I don't know what you think I am being confident about. You seem to think I'm arguing that AIs will converge on a safe design and I don't remember saying anything remotely resembling that.

EDIT: I think I figured it out on the second or third attempt. I'm not 100% committed to the proposition that if we make an AI and know how we did so that we can definitely make sure it's fun and friendly, as opposed to fundamentally uncontrollable and unknowable. However it seems virtually certain to me that we will figure out a significant amount about designing AIs to do what we want in the process of developing them. People who subscribe to various "FOOM" theories about AI coming out of nowhere will probably disagree with this as is their right, but I don't find any of those theories plausible.

I also I hope I didn't give the impression that I thought it was meaningfully possible to create a God-like AI without understanding how to make AI. It's conceivable in that such a creation story is not a logical contradiction like a square circle or a colourless green dream sleeping furiously, but that is all. I think it is actually staggeringly unlikely that we will make an AI without either knowing how to make an AI, or knowing how to upload people who can then make an AI and tell use how they did it.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

I won't argue against the claim that we could conceivably create an AI without knowing anything about how to create an AI. It's trivially true in the same way that we could conceivably turn a monkey loose on a typewriter and get strong AI.

I also agree with you that if we got an AI that way we'd have no idea how to get it to do any one thing rather than another and no reason to trust it.

I don't currently agree that we could make such an AI using a non-functioning brain model plus "a bit of evolution". I am open to argument on the topic but currently it seems to me that you might as well say "magic" instead of "evolution" and it would be an equivalent claim.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

A universal measure for anything is a big demand. Mostly we get by with some sort of somewhat-fuzzy "reasonable person" standard, which obviously we can't fully explicate in neurological terms either yet, but which is much more achievable.

Liberty isn't a one-dimensional quality either, since for example you might have a country with little real freedom of the press but lots of freedom to own guns, or vice versa.

What you would have to do to develop a measure with significant intersubjective validity is to ask a whole bunch of relevantly educated people what things they consider important freedoms and what incentives they would need to be offered to give them up, to figure out how they weight the various freedoms. This is quite do-able, and in fact we do very similar things when we do QALY analysis of medical interventions to find out how much people value a year of life without sight compared to a year of life with sight (or whatever).

Fundamentally it's not different to figuring out people's utility functions, except we are restricting the domain of questioning to liberty issues.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

I tend to think that you don't need to adopt any particular position on free will to observe that people in North Korea lack freedom from government intervention in their lives, access to communication and information, a genuine plurality of viable life choices and other objectively identifiable things humans value. We could agree for the sake of argument that "free will is an illusion" (for some definitions of free will and illusion) yet still think that people in New Zealand have more liberty than people in North Korea.

I think that you are basically right that the Framing Problem is like the problem of building a longer bridge, or a faster car, in that you are never going to solve the entire class of problem at a stroke so that you can make infinitely long bridges or infinitely fast cars but that you can make meaningful incremental progress over time. I've said from the start that capturing the human ability to make philosophical judgments about liberty is a hard problem but I don't think it is an impossible one - just a lot easier than creating a program that does that and solves all the other problems of strong AI at once.

In the same way that it turns out to be much easier to make a self-driving car than a strong AI, I think we'll have useful natural-language parsing of terms like "liberty" before we have strong AI.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

I said earlier in this thread that we can't do this and that it is a hard problem, but also that I think it's a sub-problem of strong AI and we won't have strong AI until long after we've solved this problem.

I know that Word of Eliezer is that disciples won't find it productive to read philosophy, but what you are talking about here has been discussed by analytic philosophers and computer scientists as "the frame problem" since the eighties and it might be worth a read for you. Fodor argued that there are a class of "informationally unencapsulated" problems where you cannot specify in advance what information is and is not relevant to solving the problem, hence really solving them as opposed to coming up with a semi-reliable heuristic is an incredibly difficult problem for AI. Defining liberty or identifying it in the wild seems like it's an informationally unencapsulated problem in that sense and hence a very hard one, but one which AI has to solve before it can tackle the problems humans tackle.

If I recall correctly Fodor argued in Modules, Frames, Fridgeons, Sleeping Dogs, and the Music of the Spheres that this problem was in fact the heart of the AI problem, but that proposition was loudly raspberried in the literature by computer scientists. You can make up your own mind about that one.

Here's a link to the Stanford Dictionary of Philosophy page on the subject.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

I didn't think we needed to put the uploaded philosopher under billions of years of evolutionary pressure. We would put your hypothetical pre-God-like AI in one bin and update it under pressure until it becomes God-like, and then we upload the philosopher separately and use them as a consultant.

(As before I think that the evolutionary landscape is unlikely to allow a smooth upward path from modern primate to God-like AI, but I'm assuming such a path exists for the sake of the argument).

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

I think there is insufficient information to answer the question as asked.

If I offer you the choice of a box with $5 in it, or a box with $500 000 in it, and I know that you are close enough to a rational utility-maximiser that you will take the $500 000, then I know what you will choose and I have set up various facts in the world to determine your choice. Yet it does not seem on the face of it as if you are not free.

On the other hand if you are trying to decide between being a plumber or a blogger and I use superhuman AI powers to subtly intervene in your environment to push you into one or the other without your knowledge then I have set up various facts in the world to determine your choice and it does seem like I am impinging on your freedom.

So the answer seems to depend at least on the degree of transparency between A and B in their transactions. Many other factors are almost certainly relevant, but that issue (probably among many) needs to be made clear before the question has a simple answer.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

If I was unclear, I was intending that remark to apply to the original hypothetical scenario where we do have a strong AI and are trying to use it to find a critical path to a highly optimal world. In the real world we obviously have no such capability. I will edit my earlier remark for clarity.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

The standard LW position (which I think is probably right) is that human brains can be modelled with Turing machines, and if that is so then a Turing machine can in theory do whatever it is we do when we decide that something ls liberty, or pornography.

There is a degree of fuzziness in these words to be sure, but the fact we are having this discussion at all means that we think we understand to some extent what the term means and that we value whatever it is that it refers to. Hence we must in theory be able to get a Turing machine to make the same distinction although it's of course beyond our current computer science or philosophy to do so.

Siren worlds and the perils of over-optimised search

If you can do that, then you can just find someone who you think understands what we mean by "liberty" (ideally someone with a reasonable familiarity with Kant, Mill, Dworkin and other relevant writers), upload their brain without understanding it, and ask the uploaded brain to judge the matter.

(Off-topic: I suspect that you cannot actually get a markedly superhuman AI that way, because the human brain could well be at or near a peak in the evolutionary landscape so that there is no evolutionary pathway from a current human brain to a vastly superhuman brain. Nothing I am aware of in the laws of physics or biology says that there must be any such pathway, and since evolution is purposeless it would be an amazing lucky break if it turned out that we were on the slope of the highest peak there is, and that the peak extends to God-like heights. That would be like if we put evolutionary pressure on a cheetah and discovered that if we do that we can evolve a cheetah that runs at a significant fraction of c.

However I believe my argument still works even if I accept for the sake of argument that we are on such a peak in the evolutionary landscape, and that creating God-like AI is just a matter of running a simulated human brain under evolutionary pressure for a few billion simulated years. If we have that capability then we must also be able to run a simulated philosopher who knows what "liberty" refers to).

EDIT: Downvoting this without explaining why you disagree doesn't help me understand why you disagree.

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