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Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?
Polar4mo76

From an individual person perspective, less authoritarian ASI is better. "Authoritarian" measure here means the degree it allows itself to restrict your freedoms. 

The implicit assumption here as I understand it is that Chinese ASI would be more authoritarian than US. It may not be a correct assumption, as US has proven to commit fairly heinous things to domestic (spying on) and foreign (mass murdering) citizens.

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We’re not prepared for an AI market crash
Polar5mo52

There is a possibility of self-reinforcing negative cycle: models don't show rapid capabilities improvement -> investors halt pouring money into AI sector -> AI labs focus on cutting costs -> models don't show rapid capabilities improvement.

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