postreal

Summer Bot Tournament is Starting Over the last two years, Metaculus has been running a series of tournaments to benchmark AI's accuracy in predicting future events. These tournaments, now part of our broader FutureEval benchmark, pit frontier models, bot developers, and a human baseline against each other to collectively push...

The US government projects that employment will grow by about 3% over the next decade. Currently, Metaculus forecasters expect it to fall by roughly the same amount. That six-point gap, driven by expectations about AI, is one of many places where the future institutions are planning for and the future...