PoulpoPoulpe

I came back thinking again about this and I really struggle to see how it can be a great trade. 

Your theory as far as I understood it is that this is a sort of one year option betting on liquidity constraint of the traders on polymarket. 

I say option in the sense that you are burning through something to hold a right. In option theory that's called theta : the derivative of the option value to time. If you are long the option your theta is negative and you are losing money just by holding the right. In this case the holder of the yes is short theta (yeah the term is unlogicaly... (read 436 more words →)

More than the psychological factors which you talked about (i.e. that people are weary or governments have declared triumph over the virus - which is false concerning France for instance), I think that the main reason is the seasonality of the disease (which is a well-known phenomenon observed for other diseases, as far as I know). 

I think one can see it observing Sweden's case: the number of infections (and deaths) had slowly diminished starting from may (not as fast as in other European countries after the lockdown) and the deaths have been rare (1 or 2 per day) until now. But now as everywhere else infections are increasing.

Furthermore, it is not really... (read more)