Value Journaling
I like to link to the Minding Our Way sequence on overcoming guilt a lot, but I've recently gone and added "information hazard" warnings to several of my posts which link there. Someone pointed out to me that the sequence destroys some people's current (guilt-based) motivation without successfully building up an alternative, making it a somewhat risky thing to try. In light of that problem, I was thinking about what practices might help build up the kind of positive motivation that sequence is aiming at. I was also listening to an audiobook on cognitive behavioral therapy. The book mentioned gratitude journaling, a practice which has proved surprisingly effective for boosting mood and getting longer and more refreshing sleep. The practice is simple: every week, write down five things which you were grateful for. (Once a week seems to be about right; writing more often is less effective.) Gratitude journaling is the proven practice here, and if you want guaranteed results, you're better off trying it rather than the technique I'm going to describe here. But, we'd never have new techniques if someone didn't make them up! I wanted to make a version of gratitude journaling which might be more suited to aspiring rationalists. I decided that it could be combined with the idea of value affirmation. Value affirmation (surprisingly) shows positive effects a year later, after just 15 minutes spent writing about what you value in life. Might it be useful to write about what we value more often? Perhaps repeating the value-affirmation exercise exactly would get old fast (since values do not change that much from week to week), but if we tie our values to things which happened recently, we get something which looks a lot like gratitude journaling. That's the basic idea -- write about what you valued over the past week. What follows are my elaborations based on several weeks of trying it out. Details Value Inventory Over the first week or so, it seemed useful to me to
Not exactly.
(1) What is the family of calibration curves you're updating on? These are functions from stated probabilities to 'true' probabilities, so the class of possible functions is quite large. Do we want a parametric family? A non-parametric family? We would like something which is mathematically convenient, looks as much like typical calibration curves as possible, but which has a good ability to fit anomalous curves as well when those come up.
(2) What is the prior oven this family of curves? It may not matter too much if we plan on using a lot of data, but if we want to estimate people's calibration quickly, it would be nice to have a... (read more)