Red flags and musings from OpenAI sycophancy, xAI manipulation, and AI coups The increasing integration of artificial intelligence into the machinery of government presents a complex calculus of opportunity and risk which comes at a time when government is largely viewed as in need of massive efficiency increases. While the...
A short story on the cascading impacts of tariffs Year One: The Warning Signs Eleanor Vega’s office window faced east, allowing the morning sun to illuminate the economic indicators flashing red on her screen. On this particular morning at the Treasury Department, she stared at projections that seemed almost apocalyptic,...
By the time you finish reading this essay, at least one nation somewhere on Earth will have moved incrementally closer to crisis. Perhaps a central bank will have depleted its foreign reserves defending an unsustainable currency peg. Maybe a pension system will have slipped deeper into actuarial insolvency as another...
The increasing integration of artificial intelligence into the machinery of government presents a complex calculus of opportunity and risk which comes at a time when government is largely viewed as in need of massive efficiency increases. While the allure of this efficiency, sophisticated analysis, and novel problem-solving capabilities is undeniable, a more structural concern emerges with the current trajectory of AI development and deployment: the potential for a cognitive monoculture within government.
As each week goes by we are taught lessons and shown glimpses of this possible negative future and the systemic vulnerabilities that could be created when a limited set of... (read 2230 more words →)
A short story on the cascading impacts of tariffs
Eleanor Vega’s office window faced east, allowing the morning sun to illuminate the economic indicators flashing red on her screen. On this particular morning at the Treasury Department, she stared at projections that seemed almost apocalyptic, yet mathematically inevitable.
“The President is about to make the announcement,” her assistant said from the doorway.
Eleanor nodded without turning from her display. The models presented a cascade of consequences with 87% confidence intervals that narrowed as temporal distance increased, a rare phenomenon in economic forecasting that signaled high probability outcomes.
On the wall-mounted screen, President William Harmon stepped to the podium with his characteristic swagger.... (read 2605 more words →)
By the time you finish reading this essay, at least one nation somewhere on Earth will have moved incrementally closer to crisis. Perhaps a central bank will have depleted its foreign reserves defending an unsustainable currency peg. Maybe a pension system will have slipped deeper into actuarial insolvency as another cohort reaches retirement age. Or possibly a political system will have inched closer to fragmentation as polarization intensifies.
We have sophisticated financial instruments to express views on nearly everything: corporate earnings, commodity prices, interest rate movements, all the way to the weather. Yet our ability to directly take positions on the trajectories of entire nations, particularly negative positions, remains surprisingly limited and fragmented.
As... (read 3620 more words →)
I found your post fantastic and very thought provoking. Wrote an adjacent piece here. Just wanted to say thank you for the inspiration.
https://www.prue0.com/2025/05/05/algorithmic-kill-markets-and-reward-hacking/
Your final point is definitely one I think about a lot. The activation energy may take longer but the idealogies could definitely have a shorter fuse than I lay out here :) Appreciate you reading.
