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($1000 bounty) How effective are marginal vaccine doses against the covid delta variant?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57667987 - Hard to say what's "likely" with this government, but it's what the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has advised

What is the Risk of Long Covid after Vaccination?

Interesting... although that given that the report you link to is also about the ZOE research, and later seems to elaborate on what they mean by "up to" 30% as by saying that "even if a vaccinated individual goes on to contract Covid-19, that person’s chances of developing Long Covid are reduced by a further 30 per cent in the most at-risk age group", I wonder if this is just a slightly trumped-up way of stating the finding of a significant difference for the older age group alone in the preprint that OP already linked to. (The preprint states: "In the 60+ group, we found lower risk of symptoms lasting for more than 28 days (OR=0.72, 95%CI [0.51-1.00])".)

What is the Risk of Long Covid after Vaccination?

Regarding the comments earlier in this thread suggesting that long Covid is largely misattributed depression, the symptom profile doesn't seem to bear this out. "At five weeks post-infection among Coronavirus Infection Survey respondents testing positive for COVID-19", quite a few are still experiencing symptoms that don't sound much like depression: 11% of individuals are still experiencing cough, 8% loss of taste, 8% loss of smell, 8% muscle pain. It also seems fairly clear from Figure 1a of the first(?) ZOE App long Covid study that a substantially higher proportion of those testing positive, vs. symptom-matched negative controls, have long symptom timecourses. You might take some comfort from the fact that the same figure shows that the proportion still experiencing symptoms continues to drop off markedly as additional time passes, though admittedly part of this might be down to some people eventually tiring of logging symptoms into the app.

That said: Speaking for myself, as someone who has been very cautious throughout the pandemic, after my second vaccination I suspect I will mostly go "back to normal", with some exceptions like continued mask-wearing in certain indoor public spaces subject to case rates. If Covid is going to be endemic at this point, as appears likely, the fact that I am as young as I will ever be, and will be recently fully vaccinated, gives me the best protection I will ever have. So after full vaccination, I suspect that when my immune system eventually gets to practice on "the real thing" - while there would be a small risk of a breakthrough infection (and a small risk of long COVID if one occurs), it seems there might be an equivalently small chance that the experience would increase my adaptive immunity such that I am in a better position if I catch a variant when I am older.

Are we prepared for Solar Storms?

Worth noting that studying the effect of damage to GPS systems was not considered in the Open Philanthropy report (beyond a mention that it is beyond the scope of the report), but GPS going down could be very bad indeed, given power grids' and supply chains' near-total dependence on it: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/opinion/gps-vulnerable-alternatives-navigation-critical-infrastructure.html . On the plus side, an emergency backup system for GPS has already been mandated by U.S. law, but it sounds from the NYT article like it's been 3 years and the government and business interests still can't agree on who's going to pay for it. Might be a good topic for some political advocacy.

David Denkenberger also points to this paper reporting evidence of two extremely large solar storm events in AD 774 and 993, the larger being "five times stronger than any instrumentally recorded solar event": https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms9611. On that basis he predicts  "~10% chance of loss of industrial civilisation this century."

Crazy Ideas Thread

This seems like a slippery slope. Minorities tend to have shorter life expectancies than whites, at least in the U.S. and U.K. Do their votes then count for less?

Crazy Ideas Thread

No; my script only contains the handful of unicode characters I commonly use, and is so idiosyncratic to me that it wouldn't be of much use to anyone else (mine includes autoreplacements for directories, email addresses I commonly type, etc.). But it's easy enough to make your own with whatever characters you use -- the syntax is simply

::text-to-replace::desired-replacement

::alpha::α

::em::—

etc.

Crazy Ideas Thread

I use Autohotkey on Windows for that purpose.

Suggest best book as an introduction to computational neuroscience

Networks of the Brain by Olaf Sporns certainly doesn't cover all of computational neuroscience, but is a good accessible introduction to using the tools of network theory to gain a better understanding of brain function at many different levels.

Recovery Manual for Civilization

One could bury Wikipedia, the Internet Archive, or a bunch of other items suggested by The Long Now Foundation

Since no one's yet included the links to the Long Now Foundation's blog posts in which they discuss suggestions for such items and other projects that are attempts in this direction, here they are:

http://blog.longnow.org/02010/04/06/manual-for-civilization/

http://blog.longnow.org/category/manual-for-civilization/manual-book-lists/

Negative visualization, radical acceptance and stoicism

I find that negative visualization in conjunction with Mark Williams' guided meditation "Exploring Difficulties" is useful for getting me in that stoic mindset of being more okay with a worst-case scenario. (Or at least, I hope so - I guess I'll see how well it worked if the worst-case scenario ever comes to pass.)

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