It's just no free lunch theorem? For every computable decision procedure you can construct environment which predicts exact output for this decision procedure and reacts in way of maximum damage, making decision procedure to perform worse than random action selection.

The nice thing about being a coward is that once you notice you can just stop.

- Eliezer Yudkowsky, lintamande, Planecrash, the woman of irori

I'm not sure median researcher is particularly important here, relatively to, say, median lab leader.

Median voter theorem works explicitly because votes of everyone are equal, but if you have lab/research group leader who disincentivizes bad research practices, then you theoretically should get lab with good research practices.

In practice, lab leaders are often people who Goodhart incentives, which results in current situation.

LessWrong has chance to be better exactly because it is outside of current system of perverse incentives. Although, it has its own bad incentives.

In effect, Omega makes you kill people by sending message.

Imagine two populations of agents, Not-Pull and Pull. 100% members of Not-Pull receive the message, don't pull and kill one person. In Pull population 99% members do not get the message, pull and get zero people killed, 1% receive message, pull and in effect kill 5 people. Being member of Pull population has 0.05 expected casualties and being member of Not-Pull population has 1 expected casualty. Therefore, you should pull.

Wow, XOR-trolley really made me think

Okay, I don't understand what do you mean by "degree of intergration". If we lived in a world where immigrant could have "high degree of intergration" within months, what would we have observed?

Most people need to eat something [citation needed] and it's hard to eat if you don't work.

I agree with your point! That's why I started with the word "theoretically".

The difference between AI and all other tech is that in case of all other tech transition work was bottlenecked by humans. It was humans who should have made technology more efficient and integrate it into economy. In case of sufficiently advanced agentic AI you can just ask it "integrate into economy pls" and it will get the job done. That's why AIs want to be agentic.

Will AI companies solve problems on the way to robust agency and if yes, then how fast? I think, correct answer is "I don't know, nobody knows." Maybe the last breakthrough is brewed right now in basement of SSI. 

Theoretically, if everybody starts to believe in doom, they sell their assets to spend on consumption, so market crashes and shorts pay off.