This post suggests a methodology to measure red team and blue team capability in AI control research, where each team gets an ELO rating. The methodology can help answer questions like "Are monitors getting better faster than attackers?" We attempt to answer questions like these using runs on LinuxArena. Epistemic...
Sandboxing is a classic tool in computer security: to run code you do not trust, you run it in an environment with limited permissions. It's harder to sandbox an untrusted coding agent: we may not know in advance which permissions it needs, and it can actively attempt to bypass the...
If we end up with a weakly superhuman scheming AI, trading with it may reduce takeover risk: offer it things it values (donate to causes that further its goals) in exchange for useful behavior (revealing misalignment, better alignment auditing techniques). Others have argued the case[1]. One key bottleneck is credibility....
In AI control[1] research, we've developed many protocols: trusted monitoring, untrusted monitoring, resampling, etc. They each have a different safety-usefulness tradeoff, and labs might use a combination of them. The reason: they might want the maximum usefulness from their AI models at a minimum acceptable safety (eg 90%), and only...
Epistemic status: low-medium confidence in results, this is work I did last year and has a low sample size. However I think the takeaways are still accurate. I built a forecasting bot using OpenAI’s Reinforcement Finetuning and a multi-agent architecture, then tested it against simpler baselines in a metaculus tournament....
Epistemic status: medium confidence. I believe that smart contracts are promising mechanisms for trading with AIs, but they are probably not sufficient by themselves. It’s probably best to combine this with other approaches to make it easier for AI to verify deals are real. If we have potentially scheming AIs...
We are releasing LinuxArena, a new control setting comprised of 20 software engineering environments. Each environment consists of a set of SWE tasks, a set of possible safety failures, and a set of covert sabotage trajectories that cause these safety failures. LinuxArena can be used to evaluate the risk of...