I just bought a copy. Thank you very much for writing this book Tobias.
An interesting section in the appendices, a criticism of Ajeya Cotra’s “Forecasting Transformative AI with Biological Anchors”:
...If you do a sensitivity analysis on the most important variable (how much Moore's law will improve FLOPS/$), the output behavior doesn't make any sense, e.g., Moore's law running out of steam after "conventional" improvements give us a 144x improvement would give us a 34% chance of transformative AI (TAI) by 2100, a 144*6x increase gives a 52% chance, and a 144*600x increase gives a 66% chance (and with the predicted 60000x improve
Just pasting the link in the rich text editor but I don’t know the Markdown syntax sorry.
Integrating Metaculus (as this example in this comment) would be quite useful is fairly straightforward:
I think so, by definition, nothing can be worse than that.
You should probably use Google Neural2 voices which are far better.