Speculative, exploratory. I am not confident this works. I am even less confident that it is implementable. The goal of this post is not to argue that this approach solves AI existential risk, but to propose a different framing that might be worth examining, especially given the apparent difficulty of solving alignment directly.
Bottom line: Maybe we could avoid a catastrophe by implementing multiple, extremely powerful AI guardians that all monitor each other. All the models must be developed and trained fully separately. This way, the guardians will be able to stop 'bad' agents without becoming misaligned themselves.
Much of the discussion around AI existential risk implicitly... (read 1076 more words →)
The problem with your explanation lies in the way companies calculate the cost of insurance. They do not base it solely on the nominal value of potential losses; instead, they account for the real value. For instance, if there’s a potential loss of $1,000, insurance companies calculate the cost by considering its real value, including factors like the money they’ll collect and invest over time, leveraging the compounding effect. As a result, compounding does not make insurance profitable for the insured in the long run.
When evaluating insurance, the key factor to consider is the expected value of your money. No matter how you calculate it, the expected value of your money when... (read more)