RatsWrongAboutUAP

Lurker, Rationalist.

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That's a reasonable concern. My concern is that without some principal to avoid it, that would just mean that everyone waits out the full 5 years even if its clear I'm the winner. 

I wouldn't mind giving a window of a month for things to settle before there's a duty to settle. I would still demand that if anyones credence ever goes >50% that they still have to register that publicly (or at least to me) 

Correct, accepted at payment time. If you need more time to think it over, no problem.

 

Interesting edge case. I would ask that if you at any point became >50% within the time horizon, that you would proactively reach out in short order. 

Yes! If you have any concerns over terms/resolution please let me know. Otherwise reach out with means to receive payment

I like the odds and appreciate the offer, but these terms do not interest me.

This is more than acceptable for me. Please reach out for a way for me to pay you.

Mere government hoax/psyop with no accompanying reality to non-prosaic uap would NOT resolve in my favor, no issue from me on that.

In a world where a sizeable fraction of LW becomes convinced I might win the bet, I would expect that I then wouldn't have to wait very long before it then became conclusive, so I wouldn't mind just waiting that out. If in that case, we then hit time horizon constraints before it was definitive to you, then depending on the specifics I definitely would not rule out appealing to the community (or specific 'trusted' individuals like Scott Alexander or Eliezer). I find this scenario unlikely to come to pass. I would of course in all cases commit to operating with you in good faith.

If you wish to extend that offer, I indeed will accept 50:1 (max bet size?). If you have any other concerns please let me know.

Double the odds and I will accept immediately. Otherwise I might accept in the next few days depending on if I get more offers or not. I have reached out to others now and I expect when its confirmed that I really am giving out money, that more offers will come in.

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