The efficient market hypothesis is an overrated and dubious hypothesis when applied to the stock market (a market which could plausibly have the necessary conditions for EMH to be reasonable), betting market's like predictit though are nothing like the stock market and significantly more inefficient. The necessary conditions for a market to be efficient require the market to be heavily/majority used by profit maximizing investors and this just isn't the case for most gambling markets.
In general betting on a gambling market is a much worse idea than betting on stocks, since the transaction costs are a lot higher and you are betting on a zero-sum game instead of a historically positive-sum one.... (read more)
The efficient market hypothesis is an overrated and dubious hypothesis when applied to the stock market (a market which could plausibly have the necessary conditions for EMH to be reasonable), betting market's like predictit though are nothing like the stock market and significantly more inefficient. The necessary conditions for a market to be efficient require the market to be heavily/majority used by profit maximizing investors and this just isn't the case for most gambling markets.
In general betting on a gambling market is a much worse idea than betting on stocks, since the transaction costs are a lot higher and you are betting on a zero-sum game instead of a historically positive-sum one.... (read more)