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As soon as modern data analysis became a thing, the US government has had to deal with people trying to use open source data to uncover its secrets. During the early Cold War days and America’s hydrogen bomb testing, there was an enormous amount of speculation about how the bombs actually worked. All nuclear technology involves refinement and purification of large amounts of raw substances into chemically pure substances. Armen Alchian was an economist working at RAND and reasoned that any US company working in such raw materials and supplying the government would have made a killing leading up to the tests. After checking financial data that RAND maintained on such companies, Alchian deduced that the secret sauce in the early fusion bombs was lithium and the Lithium Corporation of America was supplying the USG. The company’s stock had skyrocketed leading up to the Castle Bravo test either by way of enormous unexpected revenue gains from government contracts, or more amusingly, maybe by government insiders buying up the stock trying to make a mushroom-cloud-sized fortune with the knowledge that lithium was the key ingredient. When word of this work got out, this story naturally ends with the FBI coming in and confiscating Alchian’s data-driven research and the G-men giving him a stern lecture on national security, but he had just invented the first event study of the modern world. Pizza is the new lithium As you might have guessed, Alchian’s intellectual heir is the X account Pentagon Pizza Report, which tracks activity in pizzerias with proximity to the Pentagon as reported by Google. Started in 2024 and with over 300K followers, it may be the gold-standard OSINT meme account. Polymarket has even formalized it. Before the X account, I had never heard of the pentagon pizza theory, but it has its own wikipedia page and amazingly, this idea goes all the way back to the 1990s. The chain of causation is clear. People only work late in the Pentagon if there’s a lot