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A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines

Trivially do better than the naive thing I human would do*, sry (e.g. v.s. looking at the sun & seasons, which is what I think human trying to tell time would do to locally improve).  Definitely agree can't trivially do a great job on traditional standards.  Wasn't a carefully chosen example

The broader point was that some subskills can enable better performance at many tasks, which causes spiky performance in humans at least.  I see no reason why this wouldn't apply to nns. (e.g. part of the nn develops a model of something for one task, once it's good enough discovers that it can use that model for very good performance on an entirely different task - likely observed as a relatively sudden, significant improvement)

A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines

Naive analogy: two tasks for humans: (1) tell time (2) understand mechanical gears. Training a human on (1) will outperform (2) for a good while, but once they get a really good model for (2) they can trivially do (1) & performance would spike dramatically

A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines

I'll just note that several of these bets don't work as well if I expect discontinuous &/or inconsistently distributed progress.  As was observed on many of individual tasks in PaLM: https://twitter.com/LiamFedus/status/1511023424449114112 (obscured by % performance & by the top-level benchmark averaging 24 subtasks that spike at different levels of scaling)

I might expect performance just prior to AGI to be something like 99% 40% 98% 80% on 4 subtasks, where parts of the network developed (by gd) for certain subtasks enable more general capabilities

Should we postpone getting a booster due to Omicron, till there are Omicron-specific boosters?

I have not looked into much, but saw what looks like more evidence that boosters do help: https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1469448926562455555

Again, I did not look into much detail - so feel free to look at zvi's newer post with some updated data - but overall weight seems in favor of booster more than when I made this comment.

Should we postpone getting a booster due to Omicron, till there are Omicron-specific boosters?

This seems right, but also interested in whether boosters might be net-harmful v.s. nothing.

Does original antigenic sin also mean that e.g. your body would have a harder time fighting off omicron if infected, because rather than developing new antibodies it would just keep trying to deploy the old ones?

If we have data that boosters reduce severity for omicron, that would seem to answer this.  But do we?

LessWrong.com URL transfer complete, data import will run for the next few hours

Some old links (e.g. from googling for things) are broken: https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/o5f/wireheading_done_right_stay_positive_without/

Given that this is a major way people find things (coming from google, including trying to find old things they remember), I'd try to fix this when possible. (Though ignore if this is just related to other people's bugs)