That's what I thought when reading this, the opposite of double (100% gain) is half (50%) loss, so if you've lost by more than 50% on the negative coin toss result you will tend to lose money over time.
If the negative was less than half (say, 40%), you would gain money over time.
I've just read the first part of the article and it is great to see someone writing a thought that I've had myself. If you're skilled in music, you're 1 in a thousand. If you're skilled in programming, you're 1 in a thousand. But if you're skilled in both, you're one in a million.
This fits in with my philosophy of just following your interests with no particular goal in mind. A popular example of this is Steve Jobs in college just taking classes that he was interested in. He took a calligraphy class and that ended up informing the typeface for Apple comput...
Speed of task execution is a separate development vector from Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). Using the calculator as an example, being able to compute something a million times faster than a human doesn't mean it's any smarter.
I thought that the risk of ASI is that it would outsmart us (humans) by doing things that we can't comprehend or, if nefariously incentivised, finding vulnerabilities in our systems that we are not smart enough to predict.
Simply doing things that a human can do, but faster, is not ASI, unless I'm missing something?
I'm personall... (read more)