Ricardo Meneghin

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If you’re so sure interest rates will go up, why settle for ~10% returns when there are Bitcoins (and many other assets including stocks) you can short?

Because that's a way more specific bet depending on other factors (e.g. inflation, other factors influencing Bitcoin demand). Rising (real) interest rates seems way more certain to happen than rising prices of any given company, especially considering most of the companies pursuing AGI are private.

I'm not sure where the 10% returns come from, but you can make way, way more than that by betting on rising rates. For example, you can currently buy deep OTM SOFR calls expiring in 3 years with a strike on 100bp for 137 dollars. If I understand the pricing of the contracts correctly, if quarterly rates double from 1 to 2%, that would represent a change of $2500 in the price of the contract, so a 17x return.

High growth rates means there is a higher opportunity cost in lending money, since you could invest it elsewhere and get a higher return, reducing the supply of loans, and more demand for loans, since if interests are low, people will borrow to buy assets that appreciate more than the interest rate.

The vast majority of the risk seems to lie on following through with synthesizing and releasing the pathogen, not learning how to do it, and I think open-source LLMs change little about that.

My interpretation of calling something "ideal" is that it presents that thing as unachievable from the start, and it wouldn't be your fault if you failed to achieve that, whereas "in a sane world" clearly describes our current behavior as bad and possible to change.

I think the idea we're going to be able to precisely steer government policy to achieve nuanced outcomes is dead on arrival - we've been failing at that forever. What's in our favor this time is that there are many more ways to cripple advance than to accelerate it, so it may be enough for the push to be simply directionally right for things to slow down (with a lot of collateral damage).

There is a massive tradeoff between nuance/high epistemic integrity and reach. The general population is not going to engage in complex nuanced arguments about this, and prestigious or high-power people who are able to understand the discussion and potentially steer government policy in a meaningful way won't engage in this type of protest for many reasons, so the movement should be ready for dumbing-down or at least simplifying the message in order to increase reach, or risk remaining a niche group (I think "Pause AI" is already a good slogan in that sense). 

Really interesting to go back to this today. Rates are at their highest level in 16 years, and TTT is up 60%+.

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