riceissa

I am Issa Rice. https://issarice.com/

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Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Battle of the Sexes

In the Alice/Bob diagrams, I am confused why the strategies are parameterized by the frequency of cooperation. Don't these frequencies depend on what the other player does, so that the same strategy can have different frequencies of cooperation depending on who the other player is?

Eli's shortform feed

I am curious how good you think the conversation/facilitation was in the AI takeoff double crux between Oliver Habryka and Buck Shlegeris. I am looking for something like "the quality of facilitation at that event was X percentile among all the conversation facilitation I have done".

Covid 8/20: A Little Progress

Tyler Cowen would be distributing the money personally

According to Tyler Cowen's blog post about the saliva test, this grant was made via Fast Grants. From the Fast Grants homepage:

Who will make grant decisions?
A panel of biomedical scientists will make funding recommendations to Emergent Ventures.

The Fast Grants website does not mention Cowen, and his level of involvement is unclear to me. Some of the phrasing in your post like "Funded By Blogger’s Personal Fund" gave me the impression that Cowen was more involved in the decision-making process than I can find evidence for. I'm curious if you have more information on this.

Considerations on Cryonics

Does this analysis take into account the fact that young people are most likely to die in ways that are unlikely to result in successful cryopreservation? If not, I'm wondering what the numbers look like if you re-run the simulation after taking this into account. As a young person myself, if I die in the next decade I think it is most likely to be from injury or suicide (neither of which seems likely to lead to successful cryopreservation), and this is one of the main reasons I have been cryocrastinating. See also this discussion.

Open & Welcome Thread - July 2020

GreaterWrong has a meta view: https://www.greaterwrong.com/index?view=meta

I'm not sure how it's populated or if a similar page exists on LW.

What are the high-level approaches to AI alignment?
Answer by riceissaJun 17, 202016Ω6
Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020

“Consume rationalist and effective altruist content” makes sense but some more specific advice would be helpful, like what material to introduce, when, and how to encourage their interest if they’re not immediately interested. Have any parents done this and can share their experience?

I don't have kids (yet) and I'm planning to delay any potential detailed research until I do have kids, so I don't have specific advice. You could talk to James Miller and his son. Bryan Caplan seems to also be doing well in terms of keeping his sons' views similar to his own; he does homeschool, but maybe you could learn something from looking at what he does anyway. There are a few other rationalist parents, but I haven't seen any detailed info on what they do in terms of introducing rationality/EA stuff. Duncan Sabien has also thought a lot about teaching children, including designing a rationality camp for kids.

I can also give my own data point: Before discovering LessWrong (age 13-15?), I consumed a bunch of traditional rationality content like Feynman, popular science, online philosophy lectures, and lower quality online discourse like the xkcd forums. I discovered LessWrong when I was 14-16 (I don't remember the exact date) and read a bunch of posts in an unstructured way (e.g. I think I read about half of the Sequences but not in order), and concurrently read things like GEB and started learning how to write mathematical proofs. That was enough to get me to stick around, and led to me discovering EA, getting much deeper into rationality, AI safety, LessWrongian philosophy, etc. I feel like I could have started much earlier though (maybe 9-10?) and that it was only because of my bad environment (in particular, having nobody tell me that LessWrong/Overcoming Bias existed) and poor English ability (I moved to the US when I was 10 and couldn't read/write English at the level of my peers until age 16 or so) that I had to start when I did.

Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020

Do you think that having your kids consume rationalist and effective altruist content and/or doing homeschooling/unschooling are insufficient for protecting your kids against mind viruses? If so, I want to understand why you think so (maybe you're imagining some sort of AI-powered memetic warfare?).

Eliezer has a Facebook post where he talks about how being socialized by old science fiction was helpful for him.

For myself, I think the biggest factors that helped me become/stay sane were spending a lot of time on the internet (which led to me discovering LessWrong, effective altruism, Cognito Mentoring) and not talking to other kids (I didn't have any friends from US public school during grades 4 to 11).

The Stopped Clock Problem

If randomness/noise is a factor, there is also regression to the mean when the luck disappears on the following rounds.

Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020

People I followed on Twitter for their credible takes on COVID-19 now sound insane. Sigh...

Are you saying that you initially followed people for their good thoughts on COVID-19, but (a) now they switched to talking about other topics (George Floyd protests?), and their thoughts are much worse on these other topics, (b) their thoughts on COVID-19 became worse over time, (c) they made some COVID-19-related predictions/statements that now look obviously wrong, so that what they previously said sounds obviously wrong, or (d) something else?

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