"or more likely we are an early civilization in the universe (according to Robin Hanson’s “Grabby Aliens” model) so, 2) quite possibly there are no grabby aliens populating the universe with S-Risks yet"
But our model implies that there are in fact many aliens out there right now. Just not in our backward light cone.
Aw, I still don't know which face goes with the TGGP name.
Wow, it seems that EVERYONE here has this counter argument "You say humans look weird according to this calculation, but here are other ways we are weird that you don't explain." But there is NO WAY to explain all ways we are weird, because we are in fact weird in some ways. For each way that we are weird, we should be looking for some other way to see the situation that makes us look less weird. But there is no guarantee of finding that; we just just actually be weird. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2021/07/why-are-we-weird.html
You have the date of the great filter paper wrong; it was 1998, not 1996.
Yes, a zoo hypothesis is much like a simulation hypothesis, and the data we use cannot exclude it. (Nor can they exclude a simulation hypothesis.) We choose to assume that grabby aliens change their volumes in some clearly visible way, exactly to exclude zoo hypotheses.
I'm arguing for simpler rules here overall.
Your point #1 misses the whole norm violation element. The reason it hurts if others are told about an affair is that others disapprove. That isn't why loud music hurts.
Imagine there's a law against tattoos, and I say "Yes some gang members wear them but so do many others. Maybe just outlaw gang tattoos?" You could then respond that I'm messing with edge cases, so we should just leave the rule alone.
You will allow harmful gossip, but not blackmail, because the first might be pursuing your "values", but the second is seeking to harm. Yet the second can have many motives, and is mostly commonly to get money. And you are focused too much on motives, rather than on outcomes.
In our simulations, we find it overwhelmingly likely that any such spherical volume of an alien civ would be much larger than the full moon in the sky. So no need to study distant galaxies in fine detail; look for huge spheres in the sky.