"At its worst, there might be pressure to carve out the parts of ourselves that make us human, like Hanson discusses in Age of Em."
To be clear, while some people do claim that such such things might happen in an Age of Em, I'm not one of them. Of course I can't exclude such things in the long run; few things can be excluded in the long run. But that doesn't seem at all likely to me in the short run.
You are a bit too quick to allow the reader the presumption that they have more algorithmic faith than the other folks they talk to. Yes if you are super rational and they are not, you can ignore them. But how did you come to be confident in that description of the situation?
Seems like you guys might have (or be able to create) a dataset on who makes what kind of forecasts, and who tends to be accurate or hyped re them. Would be great if you could publish some simple stats from such a dataset.
To be clear, Foresight asked each speakers to offer a topic for participants to forecast on, related to our talks. This was the topic I offered. That is NOT the same as my making a prediction on that topic. Instead, that is to say that the chance on this question seemed an unusual combination of verifiable in a year and relevant to the chances on other topics I talked about.
Foresight asked us to offer topics for participants to forecast on, related to our talks. This was the topic I offered. That is NOT the same as my making a prediction on that topic. Instead, that is to say that the chance on this question is an unusual combination of verifiable in a year and relevant to the chances on other topics I talked about.
The % of world income that goes to computer hardware & software, and the % of useful tasks that are done by them.
Most models have an agent who is fully rational, but I'm not sure what you mean by "principal is very limited".
I'd also want to know that ratio X for each of the previous booms. There isn't a discrete threshold, because analogies go on a continuum from more to less relevant. An unusually high X would be noteworthy and relevant, but not make prior analogies irrelevant.
Uh, we are talking about holding people to MUCH higher rationality standards than the ability to parse Phil arguments.