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This seems like the kind of thing that could be hosted in a place like Próspera. I believe the ZEDE law was very recently repealed, but I have yet to hear that the Próspera project is stopping and the constitutional amendment could be repealed next year. Próspera claims it will be proceeding and international law/treaties and it's 50 year stability agreements protect it.

It seems too early, but if Próspera survives this most recent political shift in Honduras, then it would prove to be protected from the political whims of Honduras (and its legal framwork already prevents changes in taxes or regulations even with a democratic majority. A betting market could thrive in such a stable environment, and possibly allow for longer term bets. Also the legal framework for businesses is very streamlined.

It might just be my wishful thinking and political biases showing, but if Próspera can prove to be resilient to changes in Honduras, I think it could become pretty close to Dath Ilan, or help other countries become closer to it. Positive signs are things like Minicircle, a reversible gene therapy company conducting trials in Próspera because they are easier to do there than the US. 


A scorpion asks a frog to carry it across a river. The frog hesitates, afraid that the scorpion might sting it, but the scorpion promises not to, pointing out that it would drown if it killed the frog in the middle of the river. The frog agrees to transport the scorpion. Midway across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway, dooming them both. The dying frog asks the scorpion why it stung despite knowing the consequence, and the scorpion replies: "I am sorry, but I couldn't resist the urge. It's in my nature."


We are the frog, and the nature of our future AI scorpions must be figured out or we all may die, or worse.

Also there is a lot of confirmation bias. I don't remember hearing any friends telling me someone they know died of Covid, but I have heard one say someone they know died right after getting the vaccine and another complaining about what they think are symptoms of vaccination and say their PCP has not been treating them seriously.

I bet there have been covid deaths of a friend of a friend, but that is a lot less notable to them or me compared to a potential death due to the vaccine. I wish I had recorded every covid/vax death/problem so I wasn't just relying on my faulty memory.

Similarly what I have seen from by my friends and acquaintances is.

  1. Disease breaks out.
  2. Public health authorities/pharmaceutical companies push a new vaccine and claim it is X% effective/prevents the spread.
  3. Later it is found to be less effective than initially promised/new variants make it less effective and boosters are now announced as needed.
  4. People feel lied to, believing they were originally told vaccine was more effective than evidence shows it is/the fact that restrictions are still in place with the vaccine makes reduces its credibility in their eyes.

"I'm a rationalist."


Thanks for the explanation.

Someone please correct me if my interpretation of food and reproduction are incorrect as my programing experience is limited.

I see the energy being reduced by 20%, but what is the threshold for death? 

The number of offspring is determined by rolling a number between 0 and 1 rolled 10 * creature energy times, and for each random number  less than 1 / (body size x 10), a baby is created with the same energy as the original creature and no impact on the original creature?

I think I am missing where predator efficiency is accounted for. 

In line 163/164: 

          (reproduce (. [organism-0 organism-1] [fight-flight-result]

                    (energy-of (. [organism-1 organism-1] [fight-flight-result])

does this mean reproduction of organism-1 and organism-0 is only dependent on the body size of organism-1?  no impact of stored energy?

I have always wondered how high we can push the voltage on transmission lines. Maybe carbon nanotubes being as conductive as copper but lighter and stronger than aluminum could allow significant transmission of electricity across time zones, stretching out the load and allowing solar to power dark areas for some time without increasing storage. Transmission towers would need to get obscenely large, but the lighter lines would a allow for fewer of them.

Answer by Rochambeau90

In terms of electricity, transmission and distribution make up 13% and 31% of costs respectively. Even if solar panels were free, I am not confident that reliable electricity would become 10x cheaper as unless each house as quite a few days of storage cheaply, they would still need distribution. Industrial electricity might approach that cheap, but I think it would depend on location and space availability otherwise at least some of the transmission and distribution costs would still exist.

See my other comment for BeauBot's code. Below round 10 BeauBot starts 2, then from 10 to 29 it alternates 2 and 3 as starting bid, and 30 and beyond it always starts with 3.

I tried to make my bot never be outscored past round 29 but I believe if my opponent bids three when BeauBot bids 3 in the first round, Beaubot will bid 2 in attempts to cooperate making it possible for opponents to outscore it.

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