LESSWRONG
LW

rocurley
7152601090
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Wild Animal Suffering Is The Worst Thing In The World
rocurley5mo1035

I think this comment would be a lot better without the attempts to psychoanalyze OP.

Reply
ProjectLawful.com: Eliezer's latest story, past 1M words
rocurley3y100

Planecrash has 307 images at the time I made this comment, for context.

Reply
ProjectLawful.com: Eliezer's latest story, past 1M words
rocurley3y*280

If you don't want to bother using the glowfic downloader yourself, here's the epub so far. My intention is to update it every day, but no guarantees.

Reply
March Coronavirus Open Thread
rocurley5y10

I'm also very interested in this. Here are some numbers I've been using:

  • Ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases (USA):

34 (50%), or 5 (5%) to 94 (95%)

This is based on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 , which estimated the true number of coronavirus cases in Seattle (as of 2020-03-01). I divided that by the number of confirmed cases in Seattle at that time.

  • Doubling time (USA):

4 ish (which I'm treating as 2 (5%) to 7 (95%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports is how I'm getting 4ish. There are papers that estimate higher: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 gives 7, for example, but that appears to be in Wuhan post-containment.

Reply
March Coronavirus Open Thread
rocurley5y90

Here's my bay area hospital capacity model: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15278

Reply
Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread
Answer by rocurleyMar 04, 202050

Here's a guesstimate model I made to try and figure out when hospitals will become overwhelmed. Lots of model uncertainty here that I'd appreciate advice on, but the current prediction is that there will be a hospital bed for you if you get infected in the bay area within the next 6 days (95% confidence within the model: actual confidence is much lower).

https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15278

Reply
San Francisco Meetup: Reading Discussion
rocurley5y10

Add suggestions here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-X9AV6MJunsvYahzQxgSnRm_B42oRf-XcSa3KLmv-2E/edit?usp=sharing

Reply
San Francisco Meetup: Reading Discussion
rocurley6y10

Submit suggestions here

Reply
San Francisco Meetup: Short Talks
rocurley6y10

That's correct: anybody can give a talk, and unprepared talks are explicitly welcome.

Reply
San Francisco Meetup: Shallow Questions
rocurley6y30

Japanese kids going on their first errand, as discussed at the meetup: search for Hajimeteno Otsukai

Reply
Load More
3The San Francisco LessWrong Meetup
7y
1
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games and Singing
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Reciprocity Circle
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Stories
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Shallow Questions
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Deep Questions
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Meta
8y
0
1Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games
8y
0
Load More