rocurley

Posts

Sorted by New
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Deep Questions170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAMar 3rd
1
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Reading Discussion170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAFeb 25th
1
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Projects170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAFeb 11th
0
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Group Debugging170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAFeb 4th
0
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Board Games170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAJan 28th
0
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Cancelled170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAJan 21st
1
5[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Short Talks170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAJan 14th
1
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Year in Review170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USAJan 7th
0
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Projects170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USADec 17th
0
4[Event]San Francisco Meetup: Shallow Questions170 Hawthorne St, San Francisco, CA 94107, USADec 10th
0

Comments

March Coronavirus Open Thread

I'm also very interested in this. Here are some numbers I've been using:

  • Ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases (USA):

34 (50%), or 5 (5%) to 94 (95%)

This is based on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 , which estimated the true number of coronavirus cases in Seattle (as of 2020-03-01). I divided that by the number of confirmed cases in Seattle at that time.

  • Doubling time (USA):

4 ish (which I'm treating as 2 (5%) to 7 (95%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports is how I'm getting 4ish. There are papers that estimate higher: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 gives 7, for example, but that appears to be in Wuhan post-containment.

Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread

Here's a guesstimate model I made to try and figure out when hospitals will become overwhelmed. Lots of model uncertainty here that I'd appreciate advice on, but the current prediction is that there will be a hospital bed for you if you get infected in the bay area within the next 6 days (95% confidence within the model: actual confidence is much lower).

https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15278

San Francisco Meetup: Short Talks

That's correct: anybody can give a talk, and unprepared talks are explicitly welcome.

San Francisco Meetup: Shallow Questions

Japanese kids going on their first errand, as discussed at the meetup: search for Hajimeteno Otsukai

Oh no, sorry!

I can help! Go to this url:

And hit the send button. I'm just a normal user so I can't delete your post, but this is the api command to do that.

Please note that this moved!

Load More