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The cleanest example is during Ravens testing, noticing that checking a particular set of hypotheses one by one is taking too long. Zooming out and seeing them as a class of hypotheses, what they have in common, and then asking what else is possible. If the different moving parts of the puzzle are slot machines, then it's an explore exploit problem.

One of the things that helped a lot with the predictions part was reading Judea Pearl's Heuristics. It seemed to make me better at noticing that a big part of my problem solving was split into two things: my representation of the problem space, and then my traversal of that space. I would notice more readily when I had stuck myself with an intractably sized space for the traversal speed available, and conclude that I needed to switch to trying to find a different representation that was tractable. Others might get very different insights out of the book, the search-inference framework is pretty flexible (also covered in Baron's Thinking and Deciding).

What is most upstream of good cognitive strategies that lead to useful behaviors? What is most upstream of bad cognitive strategies that lead to maladaptive behaviors?

I want a smarter and longer lived population, and reject that playing slots to get more of those with sheer quantity is the only play here.

Another hypothesis: the moment of compression feels amazing, because you need to deeply understand something about a phenomenon to compress it. The zip file feels mundane and doesn't include the insight of building new frontiers in your compression library.

Companies, in service to the liability monster, try to reduce complaints, as many enforcement mechanisms (such as the FDA) are largely complaint based. This situation is generating complaints, but no plausible mechanism by which those complaints will turn into lost money so far.

Interesting that conjunctive fallacy is a broadly used term but disjunctive fallacy is not.

Is there a name for these sorts of errors of conjunction and disjunction in super high dimension parameter spaces? I usually just refer to it as 'cold reading yourself.'

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