romeostevensit

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Morality is Scary

You may not be interested in mutually exclusive compression schemas, but mutually exclusive compression schemas are interested in you. One nice thing is that given that the schemas use an arbitrary key to handshake with there is hope that they can be convinced to all get on the same arbitrary key without loss of useful structure.

Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Spoiler tags are borked the way I'm using them.

anyway, another place to try your hand at calibration:

Humbali: No. You're expressing absolute certainty in your underlying epistemology and your entire probability distribution

no he isn't, why?

Humbali is asking for Eliezer to double count evidence. Consilience is hard if you don't do your homework on provenance of heuristic and not just naively counting up outputs who themselves also didn't do their homework.

Or in other words: "Do not cite the deep evidence to me, I was there when it was written"

And another place to take a whack at:

I'm not sure how to lead you into the place where you can dismiss that thought with confidence.

The particular cited example of statusy aliens seems like extreme hypothesis privileging, which often arises from reference class tennis.

Taking Clones Seriously

I hope someone has taken seriously the idea of just paying top researchers a million a year to work on safety instead of capability. The last several times 'pay for top talent' was made in the context of ea in general very unconvincing excuses were given not to.

My take on higher-order game theory

Tangential, but did you ever happen to read statistical physics of human cooperation?

How do you write original rationalist essays?

Three pieces.

Creativity is a trainable skill.

Philosophy is a trainable skill and many ideas come about from turning a weird thought experiment into a writing piece via creativity.

Insights are a trainable skill via deliberate contemplation and inquiry.

For creativity I'd read John Cleese's book. For philosophy I'd read the Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy focusing on following your own interests. For insight I'd look at Gendlin's Focusing and Thinking at the Edge.

I guess there's writing skill too, but that's amenable to deliberate practice.

Frame Control

Even simpler but getting many of the benefits is "was that a question?"

Frame Control

One of the reasons we're not already totally dominated by psychopaths is that the vast majority of them have impulse control/time horizon issues that make their behavior incoherent on longer time scales than saying whatever they think is optimal to the target in the present moment. Simply delaying the short feedback loops psychopaths use to get inside your OODA loop is often enough for them to move on to easier targets.

I have an extremely visceral reaction to time pressure and seeing it always updates me strongly in the direction of the person being unsafe.

Frame Control

'Monopoly provider of meaning' also helps me understand why this is more widespread in spiritual scenes.

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