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I mostly got this from Nozick's final book Invariances

A type of celief that resists updating is one that discourages you from talking about it with others.

Every subculture I've participated in has lowkey bad actors. The harms this causes are underrated imo.

Deck builder rogue lites maybe. Slay the Spire, dicey dungeons etc.

Might want to mention that Kelly is an upper limit, and that most will then reduce from this on the basis of multiplying by some confidence function.

Theories are invariants. Invariants screen off large numbers of contingent facts. That's why we have reference classes. A reference class is a collection of contingent factors such that we expect an invariant to hold, or know exactly* which contingent factors are present in which amounts such that we can correct for their contribution such that the remaining invariant holds.

*in practice you know this with some noise, even up to a large amount, what matters is that you can then propagate this through the model correctly such that you know how much noise your resultant answers are also subject to.

I don't expect to be able to explain this to students.

Conspiracy theories are a bad reference class due to the lumping together of real actions by nation-states with crackpot schizophrenic fantasies. This was intentional and you shouldn't buy into it.

specifically documented? No. I think some of the obvious examples are in things like batteries, materials science, and computer parts, where there are strong IP fights. Eg AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and ARM all license some but not all of their core tech to their rivals. I'm actually pretty confused about how they determine when to do this vs not, but would guess that this is at least somewhat inefficient by over optimizing on short term gains vs the more nebulous future payoffs of what would be enabled with more licenses.

The cleanest example is during Ravens testing, noticing that checking a particular set of hypotheses one by one is taking too long. Zooming out and seeing them as a class of hypotheses, what they have in common, and then asking what else is possible. If the different moving parts of the puzzle are slot machines, then it's an explore exploit problem.

One of the things that helped a lot with the predictions part was reading Judea Pearl's Heuristics. It seemed to make me better at noticing that a big part of my problem solving was split into two things: my representation of the problem space, and then my traversal of that space. I would notice more readily when I had stuck myself with an intractably sized space for the traversal speed available, and conclude that I needed to switch to trying to find a different representation that was tractable. Others might get very different insights out of the book, the search-inference framework is pretty flexible (also covered in Baron's Thinking and Deciding).

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