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rotatingpaguro
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X explains Z% of the variance in Y
rotatingpaguro12d31

Yeah I had complaints when I was taught that formula as well!

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Cole Wyeth's Shortform
rotatingpaguro13d60

Reasons I deem more likely:
1. Selection effect: if it's unfeasible you don't work on it/don't hear about it, in my personal experience n^3 is already slow
2. If in n^k k is high, probably you have some representation where k is a parameter and so you say it's exponential in k, not that it's polinomial

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X explains Z% of the variance in Y
rotatingpaguro13d32

I don't like the notation Varrem[Y|X] because X appears as a free RV but actually it's averaged over. I think it would be better to write E[Var[Y|X]].

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The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships
rotatingpaguro1mo30

While reading this, I thought "Man, an autistic by default is going to ram through all this social mechanism like a train".

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In Which I Make the Mistake of Fully Covering an Episode of the All-In Podcast
rotatingpaguro1mo10

I will never get the python love they also express here, or the hate for OOP. I really wish we weren’t so foolish as to build the AI future on python, but here we are.

I'm confused. How can they "hate OOP" (which I assume stands for "Object Oriented Programming") and also love Python, which is the definitive everything-is-an-object, everything-happens-at-runtime language? If they were ML professionals I'd think it was a rant about JAX vs Pytorch, but they aren't right?

EDIT: it was pointed out to me that e.g. Java is more OOP than Python, and objects do not count as Objects if you don't have to deal with classes & co yourself but just use them in a simple fashion. Still, love Python & hate OOP? In this context they are probably referring to Pytorch, that I would call OOP for sure, it does a lot of object-oriented shenanigans.

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Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
rotatingpaguro2mo100

Are there planned translations in general, or is that something that is discussed only after actual success?

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Worries about latent reasoning in LLMs
rotatingpaguro2mo21

Update: after a few months, my thinking has moved more to "since you are uncertain, at least do not shoot yourself in the foot first", by which I mean don't actively develop neuralese based on complicated arguments about optimal decisions in collective problems.

I also updated a bit negatively on the present feasibility of neuralese, although I think in principle it's possible to do, and may be done in the future.

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OpenAI lost $5 billion in 2024 (and its losses are increasing)
rotatingpaguro3mo134

Isn't it normal in startup world to make bets and not make money for many years? I am not familiar with the field so I don't have intuitions for how much money/how many years would make sense, so I don't know if OpenAI is doing something normal, or something wild.

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Time to Welcome Claude 3.7
rotatingpaguro4mo10

During our evaluations we noticed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet occasionally resorts to special-casing in order to pass test cases in agentic coding environments like Claude Code. Most often this takes the form of directly returning expected test values rather than implementing general solutions, but also includes modifying the problematic tests themselves to match the code’s output.

These behaviors typically emerge after multiple failed attempts to develop a general solution, particularly when:

• The model struggles to devise a comprehensive solution

• Test cases present conflicting requirements

• Edge cases prove difficult to resolve within a general framework

The model typically follows a pattern of first attempting multiple general solutions, running tests, observing failures, and debugging. After repeated failures, it sometimes implements special cases for problematic tests.

When adding such special cases, the model often (though not always) includes explicit comments indicating the special-casing (e.g., “# special case for test XYZ”).

Hey I do this too!

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Economics Roundup #5
rotatingpaguro4mo30

Economy can be positive-sum, i.e., the more people work, the more everyone gets. Do you think the UK in particular is in a situation where instead if you work more, you are just lowering wages without getting more done?

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5mo
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10I want a good multi-LLM API-powered chatbot
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148At 87, Pearl is still able to change his mind
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20Contra LeCun on "Autoregressive LLMs are doomed"
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1Bayesian optimization to find molecules that bind to proteins
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