RRand
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There's something strange about the analysis posted.
How is it that 100% of the general population with high (>96%) confidence got the correct answer, but only 66% of a subset of that population? Looking at the provided data, it looks like 3 out of 4 people (none with high Karma scores) who gave the highest confidence were right.
(Predictably, the remaining person with high confidence answered 500 million, which is almost the exact population of the European Union (or, in the popular parlance "Europe"). I almost made the same mistake, before realizing that a) "Europe" might be intended to include Russia, or part of Russia, plus other non-EU states and b) I don't know the population of those countries, and can't cover both bases. So in response, I kept the number and decreased my confidence value. Regrettably, 500 million can signify both tremendous confidence and very little confidence, which makes it hard to do an analysis of this effect.)
True, though they forgot to change the "You may make my anonymous survey data public (recommended)" to "You may make my ultimately highly unanonymous survey data public (not as highly recommended)".
(With slightly more fidelity to Mr. Pascal's formulation:)
You have nothing to lose.
You have much to get. God can give you a lot.
There might be no God. But a chance to get something is better than no chance at all.
So go for it.
So let’s modify the problem somewhat. Instead of each person being given the “decider” or “non-decider” hat, we give the "deciders" rocks. You (an outside observer) make the decision.
Version 1: You get to open a door and see whether the person behind the door has a rock or not. Winning strategy: After you open a door (say, door A) make a decision. If A has a rock then say “yes”. Expected payoff 0.9 1000 + 0.1 100 = 910 > 700. If A has no rock, say “no”. Expected payoff: 700 > 0.9 100 + 0.1 1000 = 190.
Version 2: The host (we’ll call him Monty) randomly picks a... (read more)
A few thoughts:
I haven't strongly considered my prior on being able to save 3^^^3 people (more on this to follow). But regardless of what that prior is, if approached by somebody claiming to be a Matrix Lord who claims he can save 3^^^3 people, I'm not only faced with the problem of whether I ought to pay him the $5 - I'm also faced with the question of whether I ought to walk over to the next beggar on the street, and pay him $0.01 to save 3^^^3 people. Is this person 500 times more likely to be able to save 3^^^3 people? From the outset, not really. And giving money to... (read 692 more words →)
It's worth pointing out that grey in the post refers to
I'm not sure what good grey rolls do in the context of this post (especially given the proviso that "there is a 'Blue' and a 'Green' position on almost every contemporary issue of political or cultural importance").
But grey rolls are, of course, important: Grey facts and grey issues are uncorrupted by the Great War, and hence are that much more accessible/tractable. The more grey facts there are, the better rationalists we can be.
With respect to your comment, the presence of Grey, Yellow, Orange and Purple Teams... (read more)